Cubs vs. Reds Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/28/2022

Coming off of a 2-1 series win over the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs (28-45) are -115 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds (25-47). The series begins at Wrigley Field, starting on Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET. Chicago’s Keegan Thompson and Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo have been named the starters for this contest.

Cubs vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Cubs vs. Reds

Our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at -105 after digging through all of the key stats and trends for this matchup.

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (-105)

Cubs vs. Reds Game Info

• Chicago Cubs probable starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson
• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
• Game Day: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
• Game Time: 8:05 PM ET
• Location: Chicago, Illinois
• Stadium: Wrigley Field

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Cubs Starter Keegan Thompson

• Thompson makes the start for the Cubs, his ninth of the season. He is 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he tossed six innings, allowing one earned run while giving up four hits.
• In 16 games this season, the 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.10, with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .224 against him.
• Thompson is trying to build on a second-game quality start streak in this outing.
• Thompson will look to continue a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 3.2 innings per appearance).
• He will take the mound against a Reds offense that ranks 23rd in MLB with 567 total hits (on a .239 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .379 (20th in MLB) with 67 total home runs (21st in MLB).

Reds Starter Luis Castillo

• The Reds’ Castillo (2-4) will make his 10th start of the season.
• The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed five hits in five innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.
• The 29-year-old has pitched in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.71, a 2.722 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.137.
• In nine starts this season, he’s earned five quality starts.
• Castillo has pitched five or more innings in eight straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• The Cubs rank 13th in MLB with a .244 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 16th in the league (.390) and 71 home runs.
• The Cubs have gone 4-for-19 with two doubles and two RBI in five innings this season against the right-hander.

Cubs Betting Picks & Insights

• The Cubs have entered the game as favorites 21 times this season and won eight, or 38.1%, of those games.
• Chicago has a record of 7-11 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -115 on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cubs have a 53.5% chance to win.
• Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 37 of their 73 opportunities.
• In 73 games with a spread this season, the Cubs are 36-37-0 ATS.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• The Reds have been underdogs in 56 games this season and have come away with the win 20 times (35.7%) in those contests.
• This season, Cincinnati has been victorious 20 times in 55 chances when named as an underdog of at least -105 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 51.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Cincinnati and their opponents have gone over in 40 of their 73 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Reds are 33-40-0 against the spread in their 73 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Cubs Leaders & Batting Stats

• Ian Happ has accumulated a team-best batting average of .279.
• In all of the majors, Happ is 85th in home runs and 54th in RBI.
• Willson Contreras has 14 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 29 walks while batting .268.
• Contreras is 41st in homers and 93rd in RBI in the majors.
• Contreras heads into this game looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is hitting .200 with a double, three walks and four RBI.
• Patrick Wisdom has put up a team-best 14 home runs and 37 runs batted in.
• Wisdom will look to build on his six-game hitting in this game. In his last 10 games he is batting .270 with two doubles, two home runs, four walks and six RBI.
• Nico Hoerner is batting .295 with six doubles, three triples, four home runs and eight walks.
• Hoerner is riding a five-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .526 with a double, a home run, two walks and five RBI.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury has put up a team-leading 15 home runs and has driven in 38 runs.
• In all of MLB, Drury ranks 19th in homers and 41st in RBI.
• Drury has collected a hit in six games in a row. During his last 10 games he is hitting .256 with two doubles, a triple, three home runs, a walk and five RBI.
• Kyle Farmer’s 38 RBI and .282 batting average both pace his team.
• Farmer ranks 163rd in home runs and 41st in RBI among all MLB batters this season.
• Tommy Pham has nine doubles, 10 home runs and 34 walks while batting .245.
• Joey Votto is hitting .213 with 13 doubles, a triple, five home runs and 28 walks.