Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/28/2022

After a four-hit game in a win over the Padres, Nicholas Castellanos leads the Philadelphia Phillies (39-35) as -115 favorites against the Atlanta Braves (42-32). Action gets underway from Citizens Bank Park at 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Atlanta’s Charlie Morton have been named the starters for this contest.

Phillies vs. Braves Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Phillies vs. Braves

After analyzing all of the key trends and stats for this matchup, our best bet is the Braves on the moneyline at -105. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 7 runs.

Our computer pick: Atlanta Braves (-105) and Over (7)

Phillies vs. Braves Game Info

• Philadelphia Phillies probable starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler
• Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Charlie Morton
• Game Day: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pitching Matchup

Phillies Starter Zack Wheeler

• Wheeler (6-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Phillies, his 14th of the season.
• His last appearance came on Wednesday against the Texas Rangers, when the right-hander went 4 1/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up seven hits.
• The 32-year-old has an ERA of 2.77, with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, in 13 games this season. Opponents have a .231 batting average against him.
• Wheeler has collected eight quality starts this season.
• Wheeler will look to record his 11th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.2 innings per appearance.
• He will take the mound against a Braves offense that ranks 10th in MLB with 619 total hits (on a .246 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .438 (first in MLB) with 110 total home runs (second in MLB).
• In 6 2/3 innings over one appearance against the Braves this season, Wheeler has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP while his opponents are batting .308.
• The 32-year-old ranks 16th in ERA (2.77), 25th in WHIP (1.112), and sixth in K/9 (10.4) among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season.

Braves Starter Charlie Morton

• The Braves will send Morton (4-3) to the mound for his 15th start this season.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up two earned runs on three hits in a matchup with the San Francisco Giants.
• The 38-year-old has an ERA of 4.84 and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .240 in 14 games this season.
• He’s going for his third quality start in a row.
• Morton will look to pitch five or more innings for the sixth start in a row.
• The Phillies have scored 352 runs this season, which ranks fifth in MLB. They are batting .247 for the campaign with 92 home runs, sixth in the league.
• The right-hander has allowed the Phillies to go 9-for-21 with a double, a home run and four RBI in 4 1/3 innings this season.
• Among qualified Major League pitchers this season, the 38-year-old’s 4.84 ERA ranks 57th, 1.265 WHIP ranks 43rd, and 10.4 K/9 ranks sixth.

Phillies Betting Picks & Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 46 games this season and won 26 (56.5%) of those contests.
• Philadelphia has a record of 24-19, a 55.8% win rate, when favored by -115 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The Phillies have a 53.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of their 74 games with a total.
• In 74 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 38-36-0 ATS.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

• The Braves have won in seven, or 35%, of the 20 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• Atlanta has a win-loss record of 3-9 when favored by -105 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Braves have a 51.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Atlanta and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 37 of their 73 opportunities.
• The Braves have posted a record of 35-38-0 against the spread this season.

Phillies Leaders & Batting Stats

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 21 homers on the year. He’s also hitting .219 with 46 RBI.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Schwarber ranks fifth in home runs and 17th in RBI.
• Schwarber carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .286 with a double, three home runs, a walk and nine RBI.
• Rhys Hoskins is batting .245 with 13 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 36 walks.
• Hoskins is 31st in home runs and 46th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Castellanos is batting .252 with 17 doubles, seven home runs and 21 walks.
• Castellanos is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .286 with an RBI.
• J.T. Realmuto has 11 doubles, two triples, five home runs and 21 walks while batting .237.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

• Dansby Swanson has a team-leading batting average of .301 and paces the Braves in runs batted in with a mark of 43.
• Swanson’s home run total places him 31st in the majors, and he is 27th in RBI.
• Swanson takes a hitting streak of nine games into this game. In his last 10 games he is batting .357 with two doubles, four home runs, two walks and six RBI.
• Matt Olson has 29 doubles, 10 home runs and 43 walks while batting .249.
• Olson is 56th overall in home runs and 31st in RBI this year.
• Austin Riley has been a significant run producer for the Braves with 18 home runs and 43 runs batted in.
• Marcell Ozuna has nine doubles, 14 home runs and 19 walks while hitting .227.