Mets vs. Reds Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/4/2022

The New York Mets (49-30), led by Eduardo Escobar on a three-game home run streak, are -164 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Cincinnati Reds (27-51). First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET Monday, live from Great American Ball Park. New York’s Taijuan Walker and Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene have been named the starters for this contest.

Mets vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Reds

Our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at +139 after digging through all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 9.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+139) and Over (9.5)

Mets vs. Reds Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Hunter Greene
• Game Day: Monday, July 4, 2022
• Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Taijuan Walker

• Walker (6-2) gets the starting nod for the Mets in his 14th start of the season. He has a 2.72 ERA in 72 2/3 innings pitched, with 52 strikeouts.
• His most recent appearance came on Wednesday against the Houston Astros, when the right-hander threw 7 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing four hits.
• The 29-year-old has an ERA of 2.72, with 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, in 13 games this season. Opponents are batting .235 against him.
• Walker is looking for his fifth quality start in a row.
• Walker is looking for his 11th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance on the mound.
• He will match up with a Reds offense that is batting .240 as a unit (16th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .376 (25th in MLB) with 71 total home runs (23rd in MLB).

Reds Starter Hunter Greene

• Greene (3-9) will take the mound for the Reds, his 16th start of the season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Thursday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed two hits in four innings against the Chicago Cubs.
• The 22-year-old has an ERA of 5.72 and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .235 in 15 games this season.
• In 15 starts this season, he’s earned three quality starts.
• In 15 starts, Greene has pitched through or past the fifth inning 10 times. He has a season average of 4.3 frames per outing.
• The Mets rank fourth in MLB with a .255 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 13th in the league (.399) and 76 home runs.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• The Mets have won 39, or 68.4%, of the 57 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• New York has entered 15 games this season favored by -164 or more and is 12-3 in those contests.
• The Mets have a 62.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• New York and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of their 81 games with a total this season.
• The Mets are 44-35-0 against the spread this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 62 games this year and have walked away with the win 22 times (35.5%) in those games.
• Cincinnati has a mark of 9-24 in contests where sportsbooks favor them by +139 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 41.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Cincinnati and their opponents have gone over in 43 of their 79 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Reds have posted a record of 35-44-0 against the spread this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso is the Mets best power option, connecting on 22 round-trippers this season in addition to collecting 69 RBI, both team highs.
• Alonso is fifth in home runs and first in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Francisco Lindor has 11 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 32 walks while batting .244.
• Lindor ranks 49th in homers and seventh in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Starling Marte has 16 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 14 walks while batting .280.
• Marte has at least one base hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .389 with two doubles, two home runs, a walk and three RBI.
• Jeff McNeil has a club-high .317 batting average.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury leads the Reds in home runs (16) and runs batted in (42).
• Among all hitters in the majors, Drury is 20th in home runs and 39th in RBI.
• Tommy Pham has nine doubles, 11 home runs and 36 walks while batting .257.
• Among all MLB hitters, Pham ranks 57th in home runs and 83rd in RBI.
• Kyle Farmer has accumulated a team-high batting average of .284.
• Joey Votto is batting .214 with 15 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 33 walks.