Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/11/2022

Coming off of a 2-2 series split with the Mets, the Miami Marlins (41-43) are -158 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (36-50). The series begins at loanDepot park, starting on Monday at 6:40 PM ET. Miami’s Trevor Rogers and Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller have been named the starters for this contest.

Marlins vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Pirates

We have the Pirates on the moneyline at +136 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+136) and Over (8)

Marlins vs. Pirates Game Info

• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
• Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
• Game Day: Monday, July 11, 2022
• Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Stadium: loanDepot park

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Marlins Starter Trevor Rogers

• Rogers (4-7) gets the starting nod for the Marlins in his 17th start of the season. He has a 5.57 ERA in 72 2/3 innings pitched, with 67 strikeouts.
• In his most recent outing on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels, the lefty went 4 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
• The 24-year-old has put up an ERA of 5.57, with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, in 16 games this season. Opponents are hitting .272 against him.
• Rogers has one quality start this year.
• Rogers will look to pick up his 10th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 4.2 innings per appearance.
• He will face a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in the league with 316 runs while batting .220 as a unit. It has a collective .373 slugging percentage (26th in MLB action) and has hit a total of 95 home runs (13th in MLB).

Pirates Starter Mitch Keller

• The Pirates will send Keller (2-6) to the mound for his 15th start this season.
• The right-hander gave up four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday in his last outing, a matchup with the New York Yankees.
• The 26-year-old has pitched to a 5.21 ERA this season with 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 3.8 walks per nine across 16 games.
• In 14 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in three of them.
• In 14 starts, Keller has pitched through or past the fifth inning eight times. He has a season average of 4.2 frames per outing.
• The Marlins rank 17th in MLB with a .240 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 16th in the league (.391) and 90 home runs.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been favorites in 35 games this season and won 23 (65.7%) of those contests.
• Miami has a record of 4-4 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -158 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.2% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
• So far this season, Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of their 84 games with a total.
• In 84 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 43-41-0 ATS.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

• The Pirates have won in 27, or 38.6%, of the 70 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 17 times in 49 chances when named as an underdog of at least +136 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 42.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 36 of their 87 opportunities.
• The Pirates are 43-44-0 against the spread in their 87 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Garrett Cooper has put up a team-high batting average of .300.
• In all of the majors, Cooper is 140th in home runs and 61st in RBI.
• Miguel Rojas is hitting .247 with 11 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
• Rojas is 168th in home runs and 219th in RBI on the season.
• Jesus Aguilar is batting .247 with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 19 walks.
• Jon Berti is hitting .277 with 10 doubles, two triples, two home runs and 24 walks.
• Berti has recorded at least one hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .350 with two doubles and a walk.

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

• Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates in home runs (15), runs batted in (32) and has a team-high batting average of .261.
• Reynolds’ home run total puts him 31st in the big leagues, and he ranks 126th in RBI.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .251 with 16 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 31 walks.
• Hayes ranks 233rd among all hitters in MLB in home runs, and 162nd in RBI.
• Daniel Vogelbach has collected a team-best 32 runs batted in.
• Jack Suwinski is batting .206 with nine doubles, 14 home runs and 22 walks.