Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/9/2022

The New York Mets (52-31) are -180 moneyline favorites to win Saturday when they plan to send Carlos Carrasco to the mound to face the Miami Marlins (39-42). Carrasco will try to earn his 10th win when the teams hit the field at 4:10 PM ET. Carrasco will get the ball for New York while Miami counter with Braxton Garrett.

Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +151 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+151) and Over (8)

Mets vs. Marlins Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
• Game Day: Saturday, July 9, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
• Location: Queens, New York
• Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

• Carrasco (9-4) is aiming for his 10th win when he takes the mound for the Mets in his 17th start of the season. He’s put together a 4.64 ERA in 87 1/3 innings pitched, with 89 strikeouts.
• His most recent appearance came on Sunday against the Texas Rangers, when the righty threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing six hits.
• The 35-year-old has an ERA of 4.64, with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, in 16 games this season. Opposing hitters have a .273 batting average against him.
• Carrasco has five quality starts this year.
• Carrasco is looking to collect his 12th start of five or more innings this year in this game.
• He will face off against a Marlins offense that ranks 21st in MLB with 654 total hits (on a .240 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .391 (15th in MLB) with 88 total home runs (16th in MLB).
• Carrasco has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.579 WHIP against the Marlins this season in 6 1/3 innings pitched, allowing a .296 batting average over one appearance.
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season, the 35-year-old’s 4.64 ERA ranks 53rd, 1.328 WHIP ranks 49th, and 9.2 K/9 ranks 19th.

Marlins Starter Braxton Garrett

• The Marlins’ Garrett (1-3) will make his seventh start of the season.
• The left-hander gave up one earned run and allowed four hits in 7 1/3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals on Monday.
• The 24-year-old has an ERA of 4.25 and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .298 in six games this season.
• He has earned a quality start one time in six starts this season.
• Garrett has started six games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings two times. He averages 4.3 innings per appearance.
• The Mets rank third in MLB with a .258 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 11th in the league (.402) and 81 home runs.
• The left-hander has faced the Mets one time this season, allowing them to go 5-for-17 with a home run and three RBI in four innings.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• The Mets have won 42, or 68.9%, of the 61 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• This season, New York has won 10 of its 13 games, or 76.9%, when favored by at least -180 on the moneyline.
• The Mets have a 64.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Games involving New York have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 44 of 85 chances this season.
• The Mets are 47-36-0 ATS in their 83 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 46 games this year and have walked away with the win 16 times (34.8%) in those games.
• This season, Miami has been victorious one time in four chances when named as an underdog of at least +151 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 39.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Miami’s games have gone over the total in 40 of their 81 opportunities.
• In 81 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 40-41-0 against the spread.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso paces the Mets in home runs (22) and runs batted in (69).
• Among all batters in baseball, Alonso ranks fifth in home runs and first in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 11 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs and 32 walks while batting .240.
• Lindor is 37th in homers and eighth in RBI on the year.
• Starling Marte is hitting .289 with 18 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 16 walks.
• Marte is on a seven-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last 10 games he is hitting .410 with four doubles, two home runs, four walks and four RBI.
• Brandon Nimmo is hitting .277 with 15 doubles, five triples, eight home runs and 30 walks.
• Nimmo is riding a four-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .350 with a double, two home runs, two walks and seven RBI.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Garrett Cooper leads the Marlins with a .307 batting average.
• Cooper’s home run total puts him 137th in the majors, and he is 57th in RBI.
• Miguel Rojas is batting .253 with 11 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
• Rojas ranks 162nd in homers and 204th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Jesus Aguilar is hitting .243 with 13 doubles, 10 home runs and 19 walks.
• Jon Berti has nine doubles, two triples, two home runs and 24 walks while batting .257.