Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/24/2022

The New York Mets (58-37) stumble into Sunday’s matchup with the San Diego Padres (54-42) looking to break a three-game losing streak. The contest starts at 7:08 PM ET on ESPN with the Mets listed as -119 favorites to right the ship. New York’s Carlos Carrasco gets the start, and he’ll go against San Diego’s Joe Musgrove.

Mets vs. Padres Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Padres

We have the Padres on the moneyline at -100 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: San Diego Padres (-100) and Over (7.5)

Mets vs. Padres Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
• San Diego Padres probable starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove
• Game Day: Sunday, July 24, 2022
• Game Time: 7:08 PM ET
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Location: Queens, New York
• Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

• Carrasco makes the start for the Mets, his 19th of the season. He is 10-4 with a 4.27 ERA and 100 strikeouts through 99 innings pitched.
• In his most recent time out on Friday, July 15 against the Chicago Cubs, the righty went 6 2/3 scoreless innings while surrendering five hits.
• The 35-year-old has an ERA of 4.27, with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings, in 18 games this season. Opponents have a .275 batting average against him.
• Carrasco has six quality starts this year.
• Carrasco will look to pitch five or more innings for his fourth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.2 frames per outing.
• The opposing Padres offense has a collective .239 batting average, and is 16th in the league with 776 total hits and 16th in MLB play with 414 runs scored. It has the 26th-ranked slugging percentage (.374) and ranks 25th in home runs (80) in all of MLB.
• In seven innings over one appearance against the Padres this season, Carrasco has a 2.57 ERA and a 0.714 WHIP while his opponents are hitting .200.
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season, the 35-year-old’s 4.27 ERA ranks 52nd, 1.333 WHIP ranks 52nd, and 9.1 K/9 ranks 17th.

Padres Starter Joe Musgrove

• The Padres will hand the ball to Musgrove (8-2) for his 17th start of the season.
• The right-hander’s last appearance was on Thursday, July 14, when he threw 5 2/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies, giving up five earned runs while allowing nine hits.
• The 29-year-old has pitched to a 2.42 ERA this season with 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2 walks per nine across 16 games.
• He has 14 quality starts in 16 chances this season.
• Musgrove will look to pitch five or more innings for the 17th start in a row.
• The Mets rank seventh in MLB with 439 runs scored this season. They have a .251 batting average this campaign with 92 home runs (19th in the league).
• The 29-year-old’s 2.42 ERA ranks eighth, .971 WHIP ranks ninth, and 8.8 K/9 ranks 22nd among qualified pitchers in the majors this season.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 70 times and won 46, or 65.7%, of those games.
• New York is 43-22 this season when entering a game favored by -119 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 54.3%.
• So far this season, New York and its opponents have hit the over in 47 of their 97 games with a total.
• The Mets are 50-45-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Betting Picks & Insights

• The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 30 games this year and have walked away with the win 17 times (56.7%) in those games.
• This season, San Diego has been victorious 15 times in 27 chances when named as an underdog of at least -100 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 50% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• San Diego and their opponents have gone over in 43 of their 97 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Padres have posted a record of 45-52-0 against the spread this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso is the Mets best power hitter, crushing 24 home runs this season in addition to collecting 78 RBI, both team highs.
• Alonso is fifth in home runs and second in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Alonso carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .316 with two doubles and four RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 12 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 36 walks while hitting .245.
• Of all major league hitters, Lindor is 32nd in homers and seventh in RBI.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .267 with 17 doubles, five triples, nine home runs and 37 walks.
• Starling Marte is batting .291 with 18 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 17 walks.

Padres Leaders & Batting Stats

• Manny Machado paces the Padres with 16 home runs and 53 runs batted in, while posting a team-high batting average of .298.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Machado’s home run total is 32nd and his RBI tally is 27th.
• Jurickson Profar is hitting .241 with 21 doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 48 walks.
• Profar ranks 136th among all hitters in the majors in homers, and 93rd in RBI.
• Jake Cronenworth is hitting .238 with 23 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 42 walks.
• Eric Hosmer has 15 doubles, seven home runs and 30 walks while batting .272.