Braves vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/4/2022

The Atlanta Braves (83-51), led by the red-hot Austin Riley and his four-game homer streak, are -266 favorites to pick up a win over the Miami Marlins (55-77) Sunday at 1:35 PM ET, live from Truist Park. Atlanta’s Max Fried and Miami’s Pablo Lopez have been named the starters for this contest.

Braves vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Marlins

Our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +218 after looking at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the scoring will over the total of 7 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+218) and Over (7)

Braves vs. Marlins Game Info

• Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Max Fried
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Pablo López
• Game Day: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• Game Time: 1:35 PM ET
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• Stadium: Truist Park

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter Max Fried

• Fried (12-5) takes the mound for the Braves in his 26th start of the season. He has a 2.56 ERA in 158 1/3 innings pitched, with 143 strikeouts.
• In his most recent time out on Tuesday, the left-hander tossed five innings against the Colorado Rockies, allowing two earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
• In 25 games this season, the 28-year-old has amassed an ERA of 2.56, with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .231 against him.
• Fried has 19 quality starts under his belt this season.
• Fried will try to prolong a 26-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.1 frames per appearance).
• The opposing Marlins offense has the 27th-ranked slugging percentage (.361) and ranks 25th in MLB play with 116 home runs. It has a collective .228 batting average, and is 27th in MLB with 1004 total hits and 27th in MLB action scoring 470 runs.
• Fried has thrown six innings, giving up one earned run on six hits while striking out five against the Marlins this season.
• The 28-year-old ranks eighth in ERA (2.56), 15th in WHIP (1.042), and 30th in K/9 (8.1) among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season.

Marlins Starter Pablo López

• The Marlins will hand the ball to Lopez (8-8) for his 27th start of the season.
• The right-hander gave up two earned runs in six innings pitched on Monday in his last outing, a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• The 26-year-old has pitched in 26 games this season with an ERA of 3.64 and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .231.
• He’s looking to extend his two-game quality start streak.
• Lopez will look to pitch five or more innings for the third start in a row.
• The Braves rank eighth in MLB with a .253 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks second in the league (.445) and 202 home runs.
• The Braves have gone 4-for-20 with three doubles, a home run and two RBI in one game against the right-hander this season.
• Among qualified pitchers in the majors this campaign, the 26-year-old ranks 35th in ERA (3.64), 32nd in WHIP (1.171), and 19th in K/9 (8.8).

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

• The Braves have entered the game as favorites 103 times this season and won 72, or 69.9%, of those games.
• This season, Atlanta has won eight of its 10 games, or 80%, when favored by at least -266 on the moneyline.
• The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 72.7% chance of a victory for the Braves.
• Atlanta and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 66 of their 133 opportunities.
• In 133 games with a spread this season, the Braves are 67-66-0 ATS.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have come away with 24 wins in the 79 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Miami has a mark of 1-3 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by +218 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 31.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Miami’s games have gone over the total in 57 of their 132 opportunities.
• The Marlins have posted a record of 60-72-0 against the spread this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

• Riley leads the Braves with 35 home runs and 88 runs batted in, while accumulating a team-high batting average of .290.
• Riley is third in home runs and sixth in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Riley carries a seven-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .371 with two doubles, four home runs, seven walks and 10 RBI.
• Matt Olson has 41 doubles, 27 home runs and 62 walks while hitting .247.
• Olson ranks 16th in homers and ninth in RBI among all major league batters this year.
• Dansby Swanson is hitting .284 with 29 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 43 walks.
• Michael Harris II is batting .303 with 23 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 16 walks.
• Harris II is riding an 11-game hitting streak into this one. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .432 with six doubles, two home runs, three walks and five RBI.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Miguel Rojas leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .227.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Rojas is 234th in home runs and 226th in RBI.
• Jon Berti is hitting .259 with 14 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 34 walks.
• Berti is 318th overall in home runs and 294th in RBI this year.
• Garrett Cooper has 24 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 35 walks while batting .253.
• Joey Wendle is hitting .254 with 19 doubles, a triple, two home runs and 14 walks.