Posted on July 22, 2019, by Travis Pulver
After how Patrick Mahomes played last season, the Kansas City Chiefs were bound to be on the radar of gamblers everywhere. As long as the offense didn’t lose anyone too valuable, there was no reason they would not be back in the mix again.
But then it looked like they were going to lose Tyreek Hill for a while giving gamblers a reason to hold off on putting money on the Chiefs. However, now that we know that he is not going to be suspended, is it time to goal in on the Chiefs?
They won 12 games and the division last season but didn’t make it to the Super Bowl after falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game in overtime. So, it came as no surprise when they were named as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, the AFC, and their division.
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However, if they had lost one of their primary offensive weapons for any amount of time, the likelihood of them winning anything would have diminished. But Hill is not going anywhere, which means there is one question that needs asking—is it time to go all-in on the Kansas City Chiefs?
The offense is going to be just as potent as last year’s if not better (depending on how they work in Mecole Hardman). If Steve Spagnuolo can make the defense just a little better, then the Chiefs could very well be the team to beat.
Their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl are as follows (according to BetOnline.ag):
• Division: -150
• Conference: +400
• Super Bowl: +800
• Wins: O/U 10.5
Could they conceivably win all three along with 11 regular-season wins? Absolutely—but it isn’t going to be easy.
Of their 12 wins last season, five of them were by a touchdown or less meaning they were just a play or two away from losing those games. However, along those same lines, all four losses were by a touchdown or less.
The offense will likely take a small step back this season, but it was so good last year, it can afford to. But despite not making any significant improvements on defense, they could still win 11 games (take the over).
As for their division, the Broncos and Raiders are going to be better than they were last season but not good enough to compete just yet. However, the Chargers, on the other hand, are going to be an excellent team once again. Good enough that it is not worth taking the Chiefs to win the division at -150.
When it comes to the AFC Championship, the Chiefs are going to face heavy competition from the Patriots, Chargers, and Colts. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs could beat all three. But with their defense, it is also not hard to imagine them losing to one of them as well.
Should they make the Super Bowl, the Rams, and Saints (the top to favorites in the NFC) could have enough defense to slow the Chiefs offense down. But they each definitely have enough offense of their own to get into a shootout with Kansas City.
So—time to go all-in? Absolutely not. The Chiefs will more than likely win 11 games or more covering the over on 10.5 wins. While they could win the division, the risk in losing it to the Chargers does not make it a good bet at -150.
As for their AFC Championship and Super Bowl aspirations, they could make both games and win, but with their defense, they could also lose either in a shootout.