Astros vs. Guardians Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 8/4/2022

The Houston Astros (68-38) are -202 favorites for their Thursday matchup with the Cleveland Guardians (54-50). Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Astros, seeking win No. 15 on the season. Houston’s Verlander and Cleveland’s Zach Plesac have been named the starters for this contest.

Astros vs. Guardians Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Astros vs. Guardians

Our best bet is the Guardians on the moneyline at +170 after digging through all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Cleveland Guardians (+170) and Over (7.5)

Astros vs. Guardians Game Info

• Houston Astros probable starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
• Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
• Game Day: Thursday, August 4, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Stadium: Progressive Field

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Pitching Matchup

Astros Starter Justin Verlander

• The Astros are sending Verlander (14-3) out to make his 20th start of the season. He is 14-3 with a 1.81 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 124 innings pitched.
• The righty last appeared on Saturday against the Seattle Mariners, when he tossed 7 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run while giving up five hits.
• In 19 games this season, the 39-year-old has amassed an ERA of 1.81, with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .192 against him.
• Verlander is trying to claim his seventh quality start in a row in this matchup.
• Verlander will try to build on a seven-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.2 innings per outing).
• He will take the mound against a Guardians offense that ranks seventh in MLB with 894 total hits (on a .252 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .388 (17th in MLB) with 84 total home runs (28th in MLB).
• This season, the 39-year-old ranks first in ERA (1.81), second in WHIP (.871), and 20th in K/9 (8.9) among pitchers who qualify.

Guardians Starter Zach Plesac

• Plesac (2-9) will take to the mound for the Guardians and make his 20th start of the season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up five earned runs and allowed seven hits in five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays.
• The 27-year-old has an ERA of 4.33, a 2.821 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.288 in 19 games this season.
• He has earned a quality start nine times in 19 starts this season.
• Plesac has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Astros are batting .241 this season, 17th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .423 (fifth in the league) with 147 home runs.
• The Astros have gone 9-for-23 with two doubles, a home run and seven RBI in one game against the right-hander this season.
• The 27-year-old’s 4.33 ERA ranks 52nd, 1.288 WHIP ranks 49th, and 6.8 K/9 ranks 55th among qualified pitchers in the majors this season.

Astros Betting Picks & Insights

• The Astros have won 61, or 67.8%, of the 90 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Houston has entered 25 games this season favored by -202 or more and is 14-11 in those contests.
• The Astros have a 66.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Houston and its opponents have hit the over in 38 of their 107 games with a total.
• In 107 games with a spread this season, the Astros are 55-52-0 ATS.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

• The Guardians have won in 27, or 45%, of the 60 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Cleveland has been victorious three times in nine chances when named as an underdog of at least +170 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 37% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
• Contests with Cleveland have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 54 of 112 chances this season.
• The Guardians are 59-53-0 against the spread in their 112 games that had a posted line this season.

Astros Leaders & Batting Stats

• Yordan Alvarez paces the Astros with 30 home runs and 72 runs batted in, while accumulating a team-high batting average of .303.
• Of all batters in MLB, Alvarez ranks third in homers and seventh in RBI.
• Kyle Tucker is hitting .241 with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 47 walks.
• Tucker is 27th in homers in the majors, and 11th in RBI.
• Alex Bregman has 25 doubles, 13 home runs and 56 walks while hitting .247.
• Bregman will look to build on his two-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is hitting .353 with two doubles, three walks and four RBI.
• Jose Altuve has 21 doubles, 19 home runs and 39 walks while hitting .280.
• Altuve is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .450 with three doubles, two walks and an RBI.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

• Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians in home runs (21) and runs batted in (86).
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, Ramirez’s home run total ranks 17th and his RBI tally ranks second.
• Ramirez takes a hitting streak of two games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .238 with two doubles, two walks and three RBI.
• Amed Rosario is hitting .293 with 19 doubles, six triples, six home runs and 20 walks.
• Rosario is currently 197th in homers and 100th in RBI in the big leagues.
• Steven Kwan has 17 doubles, three triples, two home runs and 36 walks while hitting .297.
• Andres Gimenez leads the Guardians with a .301 batting average.