Astros vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 6/11/2022

The Miami Marlins (26-30) and Jazz Chisholm (2 HR in his last game) are underdogs (+217) on the moneyline for their matchup with the Houston Astros (36-22) on Saturday at 4:10 PM ET. Framber Valdez will get the ball for Houston while Miami counter with Braxton Garrett.

Astros vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Astros vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+217) and Over (8.5)

Astros vs. Marlins Game Info

• Houston Astros probable starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
• Game Day: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
• Location: Houston, Texas
• Stadium: Minute Maid Park

Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Astros Starter Framber Valdez

• Valdez (6-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 69 innings pitched) makes the start for the Astros, his 12th of the season.
• In his last outing on Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, the left-hander went 6 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
• The 28-year-old has a 2.61 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 11 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .212 to opposing hitters.
• Valdez is aiming for his ninth straight quality start.
• Valdez is seeking his ninth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.1 innings per appearance on the hill.
• He will face off against a Marlins offense that ranks 16th in MLB with 465 total hits (on a .246 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .402 (11th in MLB) with 63 total home runs (13th in MLB).
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 28-year-old’s 2.61 ERA ranks 14th, 1.130 WHIP ranks 29th, and 7.2 K/9 ranks 47th.

Marlins Starter Braxton Garrett

• Garrett will take to the mound for the Marlins, his second start of the season.
• The left-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw 3 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs while allowing five hits against the San Francisco Giants.
• He has an ERA of 10.80, a batting average against of .333 and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings in one games this season.
• The Astros are batting .235 this season, 21st in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .406 (eighth in the league) with 75 home runs.

Astros Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Astros have been favored 48 times and won 32, or 66.7%, of those games.
• Houston has played as a favorite of -266 or more once this season and won that game.
• The Astros have a 72.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Houston and its opponents have hit the over in 18 of their 58 games with a total.
• In 58 games with a spread this season, the Astros are 28-30-0 ATS.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have come away with 10 wins in the 29 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This is the worst odds of a win that sportsbooks have given Miami this season with a +217 moneyline set for this game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 31.5% chance of walking away with the win.
• Contests with Miami have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 29 of 56 chances this season.
• In 56 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 29-27-0 against the spread.

Astros Leaders & Batting Stats

• Yordan Alvarez is the bat to watch in the Astros lineup, leading the team in batting average (.307), home runs (17), and RBI (39).
• Of all hitters in the majors, Alvarez’s home run total ranks him second, and his RBI tally ranks him 11th.
• Alvarez carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .500 with a double, a triple, two home runs, two walks and six RBI.
• Kyle Tucker has seven doubles, 11 home runs and 30 walks while batting .261.
• Tucker ranks 26th in homers in MLB, and 19th in RBI.
• Tucker carries a nine-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. In his last 10 games he is batting .353 with a double, three home runs, eight walks and seven RBI.
• Alex Bregman has 12 doubles, six home runs and 33 walks while hitting .219.
• Bregman will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .200 with a double and three walks.
• Jose Altuve has eight doubles, 11 home runs and 17 walks while hitting .272.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Chisholm paces the Marlins in home runs (12) and runs batted in (40).
• Among all hitters in MLB, Chisholm is 16th in homers and 10th in RBI.
• Chisholm has collected a hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .300 with four home runs, a walk and nine RBI.
• Jorge Soler’s 12 home runs are a team-high total.
• Soler is 16th in homers and 55th in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Garrett Cooper leads the Marlins with a team-high batting average of .315.
• Jesus Aguilar is batting .247 with nine doubles, eight home runs and 18 walks.

Betting Tips for Astros vs. Marlins

After digging through all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup, our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +217. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8.5 runs.