Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
Date/Time: September 29, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Denver -3 | O/U 38
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The Jacksonville Jaguars defense got its mojo back in a 20-7 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 3. Now, they are facing one of the most inefficient offenses in the NFL – the Denver Broncos. However, playing at Mile High is never easy, and the hosts are desperate to get the first win of the year, so we’re going to have an intriguing matchup.
Opening Odds Analysis
Despite being without a win this season (0-3), the Denver Broncos opened as 3-point favorites, mostly because of their historically better play at home. The spread hasn’t changed yet, but the total, which began at 38, shifted up to 38.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars News & Notes
The rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew II led the Jacksonville Jaguars to their first win of the season against the Tennessee Titans. Still, the defense played a vital role as it kept the visitors to seven points. Minshew completed 20 of 30 passes for 204 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions as he connected with James O’Shaughnessy and DJ Chark for scores.
The famous “Sacksonville” is back as the Jags recorded a whopping nine sacks last week, as also 13 quarterback hits and ten tackles for a loss. The four-time Pro Bowl defensive end Calais Campbell led the bunch with three sacks, four tackles for a loss, and five QB hits.
Jacksonville’s defense is allowing 20.00 points per contest (15th in the NFL), and they are facing one of the most inefficient offenses in the league. Denver is averaging miserable 15.00 points per game (28th) while their D is also a better part of the team. The Broncos are allowing 20.00 points per game (14th), and it is playing against the Jaguars; offense that is averaging 19.33 points per contest (20th).
Denver Broncos News and Notes
The encouraging news for Denver is its defense that limited Aaron Rodgers to 235 yards and one touchdown in Week 3. They held Green Bay to 77 total rushing yards while the offense moved the ball very well on the ground (149 yards on 38 carries). However, the bad news is the Broncos committed three turnovers, and they must cut on errors if they want to record the first win of the campaign.
Phillip Lindsay led the way with 87 yards and two touchdowns, and we can expect another 100+ rushing yards from the Broncos against the Jags D that is letting 110.00 yards to the opposing runners (16th). Even though Joe Flacco is struggling over the opening three weeks, Denver’s passing offense is more effective as they are averaging 265.50 yards per game (15th). The hosts are facing Jacksonville’s secondary that is allowing 254.67 yards to the opposing receivers (19th), and Flacco will have a decent chance to put a 250+ yard display here.
Betting Trends:
Jacksonville:
1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win
1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games
Denver:
· 4-2 ATS in their last six games against an opponent in the AFC South division
Betting Pick: Denver -3
Joe Flacco didn’t record a 300+ yard game this season, and he will have a nice chance to do it here because Jacksonville’s superstar CB Jalen Ramsey will likely miss this encounter. Ramsey requested a trade earlier this month while he left the team to attend the birth of his child. That will give Flacco more space to connect with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, and I am backing him to lead the Broncos to a win here. The visitors will probably struggle to move the ball through the air as they are facing Denver’s secondary that is the 3rd best in the NFL.