Braves vs. Mariners Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/11/2022

by | Sep 11, 2022

The Atlanta Braves (87-52) are -126 favorites to take Game 3 of th series from the Seattle Mariners (78-61) Sunday at 4:10 PM ET. The teams enter the matchup with the series record tied, and the underdog Mariners are listed with +106 odds to win the rubber match and take the series victory. Jake Odorizzi starts for Atlanta while Marco Gonzales is Seattle’s starter for the contest.

Braves vs. Mariners Spread and Betting Line

Braves vs Mariners Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Braves -126 +106 8.5 -114 -107 -1.5 +130 -156

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Mariners

Our best bet is the Mariners on the moneyline at +106 after digging through all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Seattle Mariners (+106) and Over (8.5)

Braves vs. Mariners Game Info

  • Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
  • Seattle Mariners probable starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales
  • Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
  • Location: Seattle, Washington
  • Stadium: T-Mobile Park

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Pitching Matchup

Odorizzi Gonzales
17 GS 27
5-5 W-L 10-13
3.90 ERA 3.98
85.1 IP 153.2
24 BB 45
65 SO 83

Braves Starter Jake Odorizzi

  • Odorizzi (5-5 with a 3.90 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Braves, his 18th of the season.
  • The right-hander last appeared on Sunday, Aug. 28 against the St. Louis Cardinals, when he tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs while giving up four hits.
  • In 17 games this season, the 32-year-old has amassed a 3.90 ERA and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .250 to opposing batters.
  • Odorizzi has recorded five quality starts this year.
  • Odorizzi is seeking his fourth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.0 innings per appearance on the mound.
  • The opposing Mariners offense has a collective .229 batting average, and is 26th in the league with 1061 total hits and 21st in MLB action with 581 runs scored. It has the 19th-ranked slugging percentage (.387) and ranks 10th in home runs (165) in all of MLB.
  • Odorizzi has a 2.00 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP against the Mariners this season in 18 innings pitched, allowing a .222 batting average over three appearances.

Mariners Starter Marco Gonzales

  • Gonzales (10-13) will take to the mound for the Mariners and make his 28th start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up three earned runs on four hits in a matchup with the Chicago White Sox.
  • The 30-year-old has pitched in 27 games this season with an ERA of 3.98 and 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .272.
  • He’s going for his fourth quality start in a row.
  • Gonzales will look to pitch five or more innings for the 16th start in a row.
  • The Braves have scored 690 runs this season, which ranks second in MLB. They have 1200 hits, ninth in baseball, with 210 home runs (second in the league).
  • Among qualified pitchers this year, the 30-year-old’s 3.98 ERA ranks 37th, 1.354 WHIP ranks 42nd, and 4.9 K/9 ranks 50th.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Braves have been favored 108 times and won 76, or 70.4%, of those games.
  • This season, Atlanta has won 71 of its 97 games, or 73.2%, when favored by at least -126 on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Braves have a 55.8% chance to win.
  • Games involving Atlanta have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 70 of 138 chances this season.
  • The Braves are 70-68-0 ATS in their 138 games with a spread this season.

Mariners Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Mariners have won in 34, or 45.3%, of the 75 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • Seattle has a mark of 21-28 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by +106 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Mariners have an implied victory probability of 48.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Seattle and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of their 139 opportunities.
  • In 139 games with a line this season, the Mariners have a mark of 76-63-0 against the spread.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Austin Riley leads the Braves with 35 home runs.
  • In all of Major League Baseball, Riley is third in home runs and 12th in RBI.
  • Matt Olson’s 91 runs batted in are a team-high mark.
  • Olson is 13th in home runs and eighth in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Dansby Swanson has put up a team-best batting average of .286.
  • Swanson will look to build on his four-game hitting in this game. In his last five games he is batting .333 with a double, two home runs, two walks and four RBI.
  • Michael Harris II has 24 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs and 16 walks while hitting .309.
Austin Riley 137 .282 .352 .553 35 89 151
Matt Olson 139 .243 .329 .477 28 91 130
Dansby Swanson 139 .286 .341 .449 19 82 156
Michael Harris II 92 .309 .350 .539 16 52 102
Ronald Acuña Jr. 100 .270 .358 .405 11 39 106

Mariners Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Julio Rodriguez has 22 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs and 38 walks while hitting .271.
  • In all of the majors, Rodriguez ranks 35th in homers and 42nd in RBI.
  • Rodriguez has collected a hit in three straight games. In his last five games he is batting .353 with two doubles, four walks and two RBI.
  • Ty France’s .276 batting average is a team-high mark.
  • France ranks 61st in home runs and 38th in RBI among all MLB batters this season.
  • Eugenio Suarez has been a significant run producer for the Mariners with 28 home runs and 80 runs batted in.
  • J.P. Crawford has 22 doubles, two triples, six home runs and 52 walks while batting .252.
Julio Rodríguez 122 .271 .333 .475 23 68 129
Ty France 119 .276 .340 .440 18 71 129
Eugenio Suárez 138 .233 .333 .456 28 80 116
J.P. Crawford 125 .252 .333 .348 6 37 115
Jesse Winker 122 .221 .345 .350 13 48 92

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