Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/25/2022

The Philadelphia Phillies (49-46) hope to avoid their fourth straight defeat when they host the Atlanta Braves (58-39) Monday at 7:05 PM ET. The Braves are listed as -164 favorites, while the Phillies are +140 underdogs as they try to snap their losing skid. Max Fried starts for Atlanta while Ranger Suarez is Philadelphia’s starter for the contest.

Braves vs. Phillies Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Phillies

Our best bet is the Phillies on the moneyline at +140 after looking at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+140) and Over (8)

Braves vs. Phillies Game Info

• Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Max Fried
• Philadelphia Phillies probable starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
• Game Day: Monday, July 25, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter Max Fried

• Fried makes the start for the Braves, his 20th of the season. He is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 119 1/3 innings pitched.
• His most recent time out was on Saturday, July 16 against the Washington Nationals, when the lefty went seven innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing seven hits.
• In 19 games this season, the 28-year-old has amassed a 2.64 ERA and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .235 to opposing batters.
• Fried has collected 14 quality starts this season.
• Fried will look to last five or more innings for his 20th straight start. He’s averaging 6.1 innings per outing.
• He will face a Phillies offense that ranks 11th in the league with 438 runs while batting .244 as a squad. It has a collective .414 slugging percentage (seventh in MLB play) and has hit a total of 123 home runs (sixth in MLB).
• In six innings over one appearance against the Phillies this season, Fried has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.167 WHIP while his opponents are batting .227.
• The 28-year-old’s 2.64 ERA ranks 10th, 1.064 WHIP ranks 20th, and 8.2 K/9 ranks 35th among qualifying pitchers this season.

Phillies Starter Ranger Suárez

• The Phillies will send Suarez (7-5) to the mound for his 17th start this season.
• The left-hander did not allow a run in five innings pitched on Saturday, July 16 in his last outing, a matchup with the Miami Marlins.
• The 26-year-old has pitched to a 4.07 ERA this season with 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 3.5 walks per nine across 16 games.
• He has started 16 games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in five of them.
• Suarez has four starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Braves are batting .248 this season, 10th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .442 (second in the league) with 151 home runs.
• The left-hander has allowed the Braves to go 12-for-41 with three doubles, two home runs and nine RBI in 11 innings this season.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

• The Braves have been favorites in 74 games this season and won 49 (66.2%) of those contests.
• Atlanta has a record of 29-12 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -164 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 62.1%.
• Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 48 of their 96 games with a total this season.
• The Braves are 48-48-0 against the spread this season.

Phillies Betting Picks & Insights

• The Phillies have won in 17, or 47.2%, of the 36 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Philadelphia has come away with a win four times in eight chances when named as an underdog of at least +140 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 41.7% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
• Philadelphia and their opponents have gone over in 49 of their 95 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Phillies are 50-45-0 against the spread in their 95 games that had a posted line this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

• Austin Riley paces the Braves in home runs (28), runs batted in (63) and has racked up a team-best batting average of .290.
• Riley ranks third in homers and ninth in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Riley carries a 16-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 games he is hitting .375 with two doubles, five home runs, two walks and seven RBI.
• Matt Olson has totaled 63 runs batted in to lead his team.
• Olson is 22nd in home runs and ninth in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Dansby Swanson paces the Braves with a .290 batting average.
• Swanson has at least one base hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .300 with a double, two walks and two RBI.
• Marcell Ozuna is hitting .219 with 12 doubles, 18 home runs and 26 walks.

Phillies Leaders & Batting Stats

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 30 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 59.
• Schwarber’s home run total puts him second in the majors, and he ranks 15th in RBI.
• Rhys Hoskins is batting .244 with 18 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 46 walks.
• Hoskins ranks 20th in homers and 62nd in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• J.T. Realmuto has 14 doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 26 walks while batting .253.
• Alec Bohm paces the Phillies with a .282 batting average.