Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/16/2022

by | Sep 16, 2022

Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Philadelphia Phillies (80-63) Friday in search of win No. 10 of the season in a matchup with the Atlanta Braves (88-55). The Phillies are +155 underdogs for the contest, which starts at 7:20 PM ET, live from Truist Park. Max Fried gets the starting nod for Atlanta while Suarez is Philadelphia’s starter for the contest.

Braves vs. Phillies Spread and Betting Line

Braves vs Phillies Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Braves -185 +155 7.5 -115 -106 -1.5 +116 -139

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Phillies

Our best bet is the Phillies on the moneyline at +155 after analyzing all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+155) and Over (7.5)

Braves vs. Phillies Game Info

  • Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Max Fried
  • Philadelphia Phillies probable starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
  • Game Day: Friday, September 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:20 PM ET
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Stadium: Truist Park

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Matchup

Fried Suárez
27 GS 25
13-6 W-L 9-5
2.50 ERA 3.62
169.1 IP 134.1
28 BB 50
155 SO 114

Braves Starter Max Fried

  • The Braves will send Fried (13-6) to the mound to make his 28th start of the season. He is 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA and 155 strikeouts through 169 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Sunday against the Seattle Mariners, the left-hander went six innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • The 28-year-old has a 2.50 ERA and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings across 27 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .226 to opposing hitters.
  • Fried is trying to record his 21st quality start of the year in this matchup.
  • Fried will look to go five or more innings for his 28th straight start. He’s averaging 6.1 frames per outing.
  • He will face off against a Phillies offense that ranks eighth in MLB with 1236 total hits (on a .255 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .426 (fourth in MLB) with 183 total home runs (sixth in MLB).
  • In 12 innings over two appearances against the Phillies this season, Fried has a 3.75 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP while his opponents are hitting .286.
  • Among pitchers who qualify in MLB action this season, the 28-year-old ranks seventh in ERA (2.50), 10th in WHIP (1.010), and 25th in K/9 (8.2).

Phillies Starter Ranger Suárez

  • The Phillies will send Suarez (9-5) to the mound for his 26th start this season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Saturday, when he threw 6 2/3 innings against the Washington Nationals, giving up four earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • The 27-year-old has pitched in 25 games this season with an ERA of 3.62, a 2.28 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.325.
  • He has started 25 games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in eight of them.
  • In 25 starts this season, Suarez has lasted five or more innings 17 times, with an average of 5.1 innings per appearance.
  • The Braves have scored 705 runs this season, which ranks third in MLB. They are batting .253 for the campaign with 215 home runs, second in the league.
  • This season, the left-hander has pitched against the Braves in three games, and they have gone 16-for-60 with four doubles, two home runs and nine RBI over 16 innings.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Braves have won 77 out of the 112 games, or 68.8%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Atlanta has a record of 33-9, a 78.6% win rate, when favored by -185 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 64.9%.
  • Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 71 of their 142 chances.
  • The Braves have an ATS record of 71-71-0 in 142 games with a spread this season.

Phillies Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Phillies have been underdogs in 48 games this season and have come away with the win 23 times (47.9%) in those contests.
  • This season, Philadelphia has come away with a win three times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +155 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 39.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Philadelphia and their opponents have gone over in 73 of their 143 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Phillies have posted a record of 74-69-0 against the spread this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Austin Riley leads the Braves with 36 home runs on the year. He’s also hitting .278 with 90 RBI.
  • Riley’s home runs put him third in the majors, and he ranks 13th in RBI.
  • Matt Olson’s 91 runs batted in pace his team.
  • Olson is 16th in home runs and 11th in RBI in the bigs.
  • Dansby Swanson has accumulated a team-high batting average of .282.
  • Michael Harris II is hitting .310 with 25 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs and 16 walks.
Austin Riley 141 .278 .349 .547 36 90 153
Matt Olson 143 .239 .325 .466 28 91 131
Dansby Swanson 143 .282 .336 .445 20 87 159
Michael Harris II 96 .310 .350 .551 18 57 107
Ronald Acuña Jr. 104 .268 .355 .400 11 39 110

Phillies Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Rhys Hoskins has 27 doubles, two triples, 28 home runs and 66 walks while hitting .250.
  • Hoskins’ home run total puts him 16th in the big leagues, and he ranks 40th in RBI.
  • Kyle Schwarber been a consistent power bat this season, as he leads his team with 38 home runs and 80 runs batted in.
  • Schwarber is second in homers and 24th in RBI among all major league batters this season.
  • J.T. Realmuto is batting .270 with 23 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs and 40 walks.
  • Alec Bohm leads the team in batting average with a mark of .287.
Rhys Hoskins 140 .250 .339 .469 28 71 131
Kyle Schwarber 137 .214 .312 .482 38 80 110
J.T. Realmuto 122 .270 .343 .468 18 77 119
Alec Bohm 133 .287 .320 .406 11 66 147
Bryce Harper 81 .305 .385 .563 17 56 92

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