Braves vs. Reds Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/3/2022

The Cincinnati Reds (26-51) hope to avoid their fifth straight defeat when they host the Atlanta Braves (46-33) Sunday at 1:40 PM ET. The Braves are listed as -155 favorites, while the Reds are +133 underdogs as they try to snap their losing skid. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton gets the start, and he’ll go against Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo.

Braves vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Reds

We have the Reds on the moneyline at +133 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after looking at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+133) and Over (9)

Braves vs. Reds Game Info

• Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Charlie Morton
• Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
• Game Day: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Game Time: 1:40 PM ET
• Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
• Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Braves Starter Charlie Morton

• Morton (4-3 with a 4.73 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 80 innings pitched) makes the start for the Braves, his 16th of the season.
• In his most recent time out on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies, the right-hander went 5 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
• The 38-year-old has amassed an ERA of 4.73, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, in 15 games this season. Opponents are hitting .246 against him.
• Morton has three quality starts under his belt this season.
• Morton will aim to last five or more innings for his seventh straight start. He’s averaging 5.1 frames per outing.
• He will face off against a Reds offense that is hitting .240 as a unit (15th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .377 (22nd in MLB) with 71 total home runs (22nd in MLB).
• Morton has a 3.38 ERA and a 0.563 WHIP against the Reds this season in 5 1/3 innings pitched, allowing a .118 batting average over one appearance.
• Among pitchers who qualify in MLB action this season, the 38-year-old ranks 55th in ERA (4.73), 47th in WHIP (1.313), and seventh in K/9 (10.2).

Reds Starter Luis Castillo

• The Reds will hand the ball to Castillo (3-4) for his 11th start of the season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he allowed five hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs.
• The 29-year-old has pitched in 10 games this season with an ERA of 3.32 and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .212.
• In 10 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in six of them.
• Castillo has nine starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Braves have scored 375 runs this season, which ranks sixth in MLB. They are batting .247 for the campaign with 119 home runs, second in the league.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

• The Braves have been favorites in 56 games this season and won 37 (66.1%) of those contests.
• Atlanta has a record of 21-10, a 67.7% win rate, when favored by -155 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The Braves have a 60.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 40 of their 78 chances.
• In 78 games with a spread this season, the Braves are 39-39-0 ATS.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

• The Reds have won in 21, or 34.4%, of the 61 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Cincinnati has come away with a win 12 times in 37 chances when named as an underdog of at least +133 or longer on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 42.9% chance of pulling out a win.
• Cincinnati and their opponents have gone over in 43 of their 78 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Reds have an against the spread record of 34-44-0 in 78 games with a line this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

• Dansby Swanson’s .302 average leads the Braves this year. His resume also includes 14 homers and driven in 46 RBI.
• In all of MLB, Swanson is 34th in homers and 23rd in RBI.
• Swanson brings a hitting streak of two games into this game. In his last five games he is hitting .318 with two doubles, a home run and three RBI.
• Austin Riley has put his power on display as he paces his team with 20 home runs and 48 RBI.
• Riley ranks eighth in homers and 19th in RBI on the year.
• Riley has three games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .421 with two doubles, two home runs, three walks and five RBI.
• Matt Olson has 31 doubles, 12 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .248.
• Marcell Ozuna has nine doubles, 14 home runs and 21 walks while hitting .223.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

• Brandon Drury leads the Reds in home runs (16) and runs batted in (40).
• Drury’s home run total puts him 19th in MLB, and he ranks 42nd in RBI.
• Tommy Pham is batting .257 with nine doubles, 11 home runs and 36 walks.
• Pham ranks 55th in homers and 78th in RBI among all hitters in the big leagues.
• Kyle Farmer has accumulated a team-high batting average of .284.
• Joey Votto has 15 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 31 walks while hitting .216.