Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/4/2022

The Milwaukee Brewers (46-35), led by Christian Yelich on a 12-game hitting streak, will meet the Chicago Cubs (32-46) Monday at American Family Field. The Brewers are -153 favorites for the matchup, which starts at 4:10 PM ET. Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer gets the start, and he’ll go against Chicago’s Justin Steele.

Brewers vs. Cubs Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Brewers vs. Cubs

Our best bet is the Cubs on the moneyline at +129 after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Chicago Cubs (+129) and Over (9)

Brewers vs. Cubs Game Info

• Milwaukee Brewers probable starting pitcher: Eric Lauer
• Chicago Cubs probable starting pitcher: Justin Steele
• Game Day: Monday, July 4, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
• Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• Stadium: American Family Field

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Pitching Matchup

Brewers Starter Eric Lauer

• Lauer gets the start for the Brewers, his 15th of the season. He is 6-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 80 strikeouts through 78 1/3 innings pitched.
• His most recent appearance was on Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays, when the left-hander tossed 4 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing six hits.
• The 27-year-old has put together a 4.02 ERA and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings across 14 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .240 to his opponents.
• Lauer has registered six quality starts this season.
• Lauer is looking to pick up his 12th start of five or more innings this year in this matchup.
• The opposing Cubs offense has the 12th-ranked slugging percentage (.400) and ranks 18th in MLB play with 78 home runs. It has a collective .249 batting average, and is 11th in MLB with 661 total hits and 14th in MLB play scoring 345 runs.
• Lauer has pitched 11 innings, giving up three earned runs on 10 hits while striking out 17 against the Cubs this season.

Cubs Starter Justin Steele

• The Cubs’ Steele (3-5) will make his 16th start of the season.
• The left-hander’s last appearance was on Thursday, when he threw five innings against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up one earned run while allowing six hits.
• The 26-year-old has pitched to a 4.39 ERA this season with 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4.1 walks per nine across 15 games.
• In 15 starts this season, he’s earned three quality starts.
• Steele has pitched five or more innings in six straight games and will look to extend that streak.
• The Brewers rank 20th in MLB with a .237 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks eighth in the league (.415) and 113 home runs.
• This season, the left-hander has pitched against the Brewers in three games, and they have gone 14-for-52 with a double and five RBI over 13 innings.

Brewers Betting Picks & Insights

• The Brewers have entered the game as favorites 63 times this season and won 36, or 57.1%, of those games.
• Milwaukee has a record of 21-14, a 60% win rate, when favored by -153 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The Brewers have a 60.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Games involving Milwaukee have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 42 of 81 chances this season.
• The Brewers have an ATS record of 37-44-0 in 81 games with a spread this season.

Cubs Betting Picks & Insights

• The Cubs have come away with 22 wins in the 54 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Chicago has won 11 of 26 games when listed as at least +129 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Cubs have an implied victory probability of 43.7% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
• Chicago’s games have gone over the total in 40 of their 79 opportunities.
• The Cubs are 40-39-0 against the spread in their 79 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Brewers Leaders & Batting Stats

• Rowdy Tellez has gone yard 16 times in the 2022 campaign while knocking in 53 runs, both totals that lead the Brewers.
• Including all MLB hitters, Tellez ranks 102nd in batting average, 104th in on-base percentage, and 34th in slugging.
• Yelich has 11 doubles, three triples, eight home runs and 40 walks while batting .256.
• Including all major league batters, Yelich ranks 99th in home runs and 125th in RBI.
• Yelich has 12 games in a row with at least one hit. In his last 10 games he is hitting .378 with a double, a triple, a home run, nine walks and six RBI.
• Willy Adames leads the Brewers with 16 home runs.
• Andrew McCutchen has a club-high .257 batting average.

Cubs Leaders & Batting Stats

• Willson Contreras is hitting .280 with 17 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 35 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .398.
• Contreras’ home run total places him 39th in MLB, and he is 75th in RBI.
• Contreras carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .368 with three doubles, a home run, five walks and three RBI.
• Ian Happ’s .285 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Happ is currently 99th in homers and 65th in RBI in the big leagues.
• Patrick Wisdom paces the Cubs in home runs (17) and runs batted in (45).
• Nico Hoerner is batting .309 with seven doubles, three triples, four home runs and 10 walks.