Today is another great day to bet on sports with 3 great plays and another 3 team parlay you can wager on courtesy of Doug from The Run Down.
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks – 10:30 p.m. ET
It’s hard not to love the Avalanche – they (rightfully) entered the season as favorites to lift the Stanley Cup and just won two in a row against the Sharks in Denver. As such, they’re now the biggest favorites on a massive Monday NHL slate. But -265? We’re out.
This is a classic market overreaction, and we present our proper valuation: No doubt, the Avs are one of the best teams in the league, but their defense is decimated right now without Samuel Girard (undisclosed), Bowen Byram (upper body) and possibly Ryan Graves (upper body). San Jose, on the other hand, is completely healthy and actually beat the Avs in The Shark Tank on March 1.
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Division rivalries run deep, and while the Sharks are eliminated from playoff contention, the chance to play spoiler is motivation enough.
Pick: Sharks +1.5 (-112)
DFS Value Play: Tomas Hertl ($4900)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 p.m. ET
The Blazers have been on an absolute rampage to start their six-game road trip, winning four in a row by a combined point differential of 71. The public’s mouth is watering: 62% of tickets are on the Portland spread and 81% (!) are on the moneyline. And yet, the line has moved half a point in Atlanta’s favor, indicating the smart money likes the Hawks.
The Blazers are on a back-to-back traveling from Boston, while the Hawks have been resting at home since a win over the Bulls on Saturday. With that rest advantage, Atlanta covers 61.5% ATS and wins at a 61.5% clip. They’re also excellent as a home favorite, covering 72.2% ATS and 77.8% straight up.
Trae Young has wasted no time since returning from injury, dropping 65 points over his last two games. Avoid a potential bad beat, and take the Hawks to win.
Pick: Hawks -129
DFS Value Play: Kevin Huerter ($5400)
Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers – 7:00 p.m. ET
Even if Alex Ovechkin (lower body) doesn’t play, there’s ample reason to believe there will be scoring tonight. One player’s absence can shift an NBA line dramatically, but it’s atypical in the NHL considering larger rosters and smaller percentage of playing time per player.
That’s why it’s curious that this total is lower than it should presumably be with The Great Eight in question. The Capitals are by far the highest scoring away team, averaging 3.54 goals (next closest is 3.36), while the Rangers put up 3.50 at home, significantly better than the 2.88 they average on the road.
Their two head-to-heads at MSG this season had at least six goals, plus the Caps scored six on their own in the only road game they’ve played without Ovi this year.
Pick: Over 6 (-120)
DFS Value Play: Ryan Strome ($5300)
Parlay
First Leg – 7:05 p.m. ET
The Phillies have to be heated after falling just short (literally, an inch) of an incredible Sunday Night Baseball comeback against the Mets. They’ll take out their frustrations against the Brewers, who are somehow runline favorites here.
The Pirates arguably have a pitching matchup advantage against [checks notes] the Padres? Tyler Anderson, who beat San Diego on April 14, will get to face either Dinelson Lamet or Ryan Weathers, both of whom are coming off injury. Expect the Bucs to keep it close.
Pick: Phillies +1.5 and Pirates +1.5 Parlay (+150)
Prop
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans – 7:40 p.m. ET
Zion Williamson is getting a points prop right around the number he averaged in April (28.2). But he’s going up against Draymond Green and this sixth-rated Warriors defense. Given the Duke product has gone under this mark in three of his last four games, we like it to stay that way again.
Pick: Zion Williamson Under 28.5 Points (-117)
Bold Bet
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins – 7:40 p.m. ET
This bet doesn’t even feel particularly bold given the form of these two teams – the Twins sit at 10-16, only above the lowly Tigers in the AL Central, while the Rangers are coming off a series win over the red-hot Red Sox. Probable Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda has been awful to start the season (6.56 ERA, 1.76 WHIP), so there’s no reason to trust him or his team here. Take the dogs.
Pick: Rangers +155