The 2019 College Football season goes on Friday night with two interesting games of the Week 6 schedule. No. 18 UCF Knights visit their AAC foes Cincinnati Bears, while San Jose State hosts New Mexico in the Mountain West clash.
The Knights are listed as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 61.0 points. They are 3-1 SU and ATS versus Cincinnati over the last four years, tallying three straight wins. The under is 3-1 in that span including UCF’s 38-13 home in 2018. The Knight were 6.5-point favorites with the total at 60.5 points.
UCF is 4-1 on the season, covering on three occasions. After a 35-34 loss at Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites in Week 3, the Knights failed to cover a 42-point spread in a 56-21 home win over UConn. Still, UCF is 18-2 SU and 14-6 ATS in the last 20 games overall and 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the previous 16 away from home.
The Knights’ offense is rolling under freshman QB Dillan Gabriel who already has 14 touchdowns on 1338 passing yards. UCF is racking up 568.6 total yards per game which are the second-most in the country, right behind Oklahoma. With 49.0 points scored per game, the Knights are the 6th-most efficient team in the country.
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The problems are on the other side of the ball. UCF is allowing 19.4 points per game (33rd in the country), but the Knights’ strength of schedule was arguably weak. And, they lost to the only solid team on that schedule.
Similar to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati relies on its stout defense. The Bearcats are surrendering 20.8 points per game (35th) on 297.2 total yards (23rd). They are 3-1 on the season, covering three times in the process. Cincinnati is 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS in the last 12 outings and 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in the last nine at home.
On the other hand, the Bearcats lost seven straight home games as underdogs, covering just once in that stretch. Cincinnati’s defense should keep it close against UCF at home, but the Bearcats’ offense will have to step up if they want to upset the odds. Cincinnati is scoring just 27.8 points per game (80th).
If the Bearcats find the way to control the clock and keep the Knights’ offense off the field, they could have a chance to win the game by a few points. Hereof, consider teasing the UCF Knights through zero, but the visitors should win and cover. Those who believe in UCF’s offense can take the alternative 7-point spread at +150 odds.
The New Mexico Lobos visit the San Jose State Spartans as 6.5-point underdogs with the total at 67.0 points. The Spartans are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Lobos. In their previous meeting in 2016, New Mexico won 48-41 as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The Lobos’ defense is one of the worst in the country this season. They are allowing 41.5 points (128th) on 526.2 total yard per game (130th in the country). Still, the Lobos are 2-2 on the season, covering just once in that span.
On the other side, the San Jose State Spartans are also 2-2 on the season but 2-2 ATS in the process. They are surrendering 29.2 points per outing (85th) on 456.5 total yards (115th). Considering defensive units on both sides, we should see a bunch of points here.
The Lobos are scoring 29.5 points per game (73rd) while racking up 452.2 total yards (37th). The Spartans are tallying 26.5 points (86th) on 404.0 total yards per contest (76th). The under is 5-1 in San Jose State’s last six outings, while the over is 6-3 in New Mexico’s previous nine games overall.
The Lobos’ pass defense has been terrible so far, surrendering 379.5 yards. The Spartans’ QB Josh Love has a favorable matchup, and he’s thrown for 1013 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception.
On the other hand, the Spartans’ run defense is allowing 219.8 yards per game, so the Lobos’ rushing will cause big problems, as New Mexico is tallying 205.8 yards on the ground per contest. Therefore, both offenses will have a chance to show their upsides.
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