Week 5 of the College Football season wraps up Saturday, September 28, 2019. There’s a ton of interesting matchups, so we bring you all-important betting trends and notes to help you with your betting selection whether you choose to beat the spread or wager on the totals.
ATS Trending
Seven teams went perfect against the spread in the first four weeks. Four of those seven schools are still undefeated – Auburn, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, and Wisconsin. Oklahoma State, Utah State, and Louisiana-Lafayette all suffered one defeat each.
The Auburn Tigers and Wisconsin Badgers are both legitimate playoff contenders. According to ESPN, the Badgers’ chances to make the playoff are 19.5%, while the Tigers’ chances are 15.0%. All other five teams who went perfect against the spread are not in the playoff picture.
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Wisconsin welcome Northwestern as a 24.5-point fave. The Wildcats are one of 11 teams who failed to cover the spread over the first four weeks. Still, the Wildcats are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five encounters with the Badgers including a 31-17 win as 4.5-point home dogs last season.
Auburn host Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite, and the Bulldogs are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 3-4 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bulldogs. Still, the Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS in their last nine showings on the road, while the Tigers covered in four straight home games.
Kansas State visits Oklahoma State as a 4-point dog, so one of these two teams will extend its streak. Both schools won four of their last eight H2H encounters, but Kansas State went 7-1 ATS in that span. Also, the Wildcats covered in six of their last eight outings on the road, but the Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last six home contests.
Utah State hosts Colorado State as massive 24-point favorites, and the Aggies failed to cover in the last three H2H meetings. The Rams are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the season, while they are only 2-6 ATS in the previous eight outings on the road.
Louisiana-Lafayette takes on Georgia Southern as 3-point road favorites. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 outings on the road as favorites. The Eagles are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games as underdogs, so the Ragin’ Cajuns will have a tall task to extend their streak.
Southern Methodist will be on the road, too, visiting USF as 7.5-point favorites. The Mustangs are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six outings on the road as favorites. USF is 4-4 SU and ATS in its last eight home games as dogs and 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in the last four encounters with the Mustangs.
Over/Under Trending
The SMU Mustangs are perfect against the spread, and all their four games went in the over. Interestingly, their four meetings with the USF Bulls were finished in the under. Also, four of the Bulls’ last six games went in the under.
Louisiana State, Charlotte, New Mexico, and Middle Tennessee are the other four teams with all their games finished in the over. On the other side, all of Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Liberty, Tulsa, Connecticut, and East Carolina’s games went in the under.
While Louisiana State is on a bye, New Mexico visits Liberty, and one of these two teams will snap its streak. New Mexico is allowing 49.7 points per game (128th in the country) on 546.0 total yards per game (also 128th), while Liberty is surrendering 25.8 points per game (69th) on 434.8 total yards (99th).
Middle Tennessee takes on Iowa as a massive 23.5-point road dog. Interestingly, the over is 10-4 in Iowa’s last 14 games overall and 5-0 in Iowa’s previous five showings at home when listed as a fave of 22 or more points.
Keep your eyes on Cincinnati and Texas Tech. Both these schools rely on their defense, but Texas Tech will have a mountain to climb this Saturday. The Red Raiders visit the Oklahoma Sooners who have the best offense in the country. The over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
On the other side, Cincinnati visits Marshall as a 4-point fave with the total at 47.5 points. The over has hit in two of their last three encounters including Marshall’s 38-21 road win in 2017. Likewise, the over is 6-1 in Marshall’s last seven games overall.
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