The New York Giants take on the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football, opening Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season. These two teams will meet each other for the first time since 2015 when the Pats outlasted the Giants 27-26 as 7-point favorites in New York.
Interestingly, the New York Giants are 3-2 straight up and ATS in their last five meetings with the Patriots. Likewise, the Giants beat the Pats in two Super Bowls in 2008 and 2012. Hereof, the Pats will seek revenge, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they easily cover a 17-point spread.
The New England Patriots were on an arguably week schedule through the first five weeks. However, their defense was exceptional, and I don’t think the Giants’ offense can make the difference in this one.
The Pats are allowing only 6.8 points per game on 238.4 total yards which rank them 1st in the NFL. Likewise, the Patriots are allowing their rivals to convert only 12.7% of their 3rd downs which is the best record in the league by far.
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On the other side, the Giants’ offense is producing 19.4 points per game (24th in the NFL) on 364.8 total yards (15th). They won two games without RB Saquon Barkley who will stay sidelined due to an ankle injury, while WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) will also miss the clash with the Pets.
Without their best playmakers, I don’t see how the Giants will damage the Pats’ defense. Rookie QB Daniel Jones struggled against the Vikings’ defense last week, tossing for 182 yards, a TD, and an interception while completing 55.3% of his passing attempts.
Now, Jones will face off against another elite D, so I expect to see another mediocre display by a rookie. Furthermore, the Giants’ defense is surrendering 25.0 points per game (24th) on 409.4 total yards (30th). They allowed 490 total yards to the Vikings, so I expect to see more of the same against the reigning champs.
Considering all these facts, the Patriots should dominate the Giants on both sides of the ball. The price on the Pats to win both halves is -188 which seems quite tempting. Also, the Pats shouldn’t have any problems to score at least three touchdowns at -225 odds.
If you want to take a risk, consider wagering on the Patriots to win every quarter at +450 or go with the alternative spread. The Patriots to cover a 21-point spread pays +150. They are tallying 31.0 points per game, and the odds are -125 on the Patriots to drop at least 30 on the Giants.
When it comes to the player specials, this clash is not offering a lot. Furthermore, the bookies avoid offering passing and rushing yards because the score could be easily lopsided and we could see plenty of starters on the bench early in the game.
Alongside Saquon Barkley, the Giants will miss Wayne Gallman (concussion), too. It means rookie Jonathan Hilliman will lead their backfield, and he’s set at +350 to score a TD anytime.
If you believe in the Giants’ wounded offense, consider taking rookie WR Darius Slayton to score at +350. Slayton has nine receptions on 12 targets, tallying 157 yards and a TD. Interestingly, the Patriots haven’t allowed a single receiving touchdown thus far.
On the other side, the Giants surrendered ten receiving touchdowns over the first five weeks. It means that Josh Gordon is a nice pick at +110 to score a TD anytime. Gordon is scoreless since Week 1, but he’s dealing with a knee injury. Still, he’s expected to suit up against the Giants.
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