Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 8/11/2022

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to pick up their 51st win of the season when they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-66) Thursday. The game begins at 3:40 PM ET, with the Diamondbacks listed as -188 favorites on the moneyline. Merrill Kelly will get the ball for Arizona while Pittsburgh counter with JT Brubaker.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Pirates

We have the Pirates on the moneyline at +158 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after digging through all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+158) and Over (8)

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Game Info

• Arizona Diamondbacks probable starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly
• Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: JT Brubaker
• Game Day: Thursday, August 11, 2022
• Game Time: 3:40 PM ET
• Location: Phoenix, Arizona
• Stadium: Chase Field

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Diamondbacks Starter Merrill Kelly

• Kelly makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 23rd of the season. He is 10-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 132 1/3 innings pitched.
• In his most recent time out on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, the right-hander tossed seven innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
• The 33-year-old has a 2.86 ERA and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 22 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .226 to his opponents.
• Kelly is looking to continue a seventh-game quality start streak in this game.
• Kelly will try to build upon a 15-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 6.0 innings per outing).
• The opposing Pirates offense has a collective .220 batting average, and is 29th in the league with 804 total hits and 28th in MLB play with 402 runs scored. It has the 28th-ranked slugging percentage (.363) and ranks 18th in home runs (110) in all of MLB.
• Kelly has a 3.60 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP against the Pirates this season in five innings pitched, allowing a .263 batting average over one appearance.
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 33-year-old’s 2.86 ERA ranks 13th, 1.126 WHIP ranks 24th, and 7.4 K/9 ranks 41st.

Pirates Starter JT Brubaker

• The Pirates will hand the ball to Brubaker (2-10) for his 22nd start of the season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed eight hits in four innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
• The 28-year-old has pitched in 21 games this season with an ERA of 4.49, a 2.523 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.523.
• In 21 starts this season, he’s earned six quality starts.
• Brubaker has started 21 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 15 times. He averages 5.0 innings per appearance.
• The Diamondbacks are batting .228 this season, 26th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .387 (17th in the league) with 123 home runs.
• The right-hander has allowed the Diamondbacks to go 8-for-20 with three doubles, three home runs and five RBI in four innings this season.

Diamondbacks Betting Picks & Insights

• The Diamondbacks have entered the game as favorites 30 times this season and won 16, or 53.3%, of those games.
• Arizona has played as a favorite of -188 or more twice this season and won both games.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Diamondbacks have a 65.3% chance to win.
• Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 54 of their 115 games with a total this season.
• The Diamondbacks are 65-50-0 ATS in their 115 games with a spread this season.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

• The Pirates have been underdogs in 95 games this season and have come away with the win 36 times (37.9%) in those contests.
• Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 16-20 when favored by +158 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 38.8% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
• Pittsburgh and their opponents have hit the over in 48 of their 112 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• The Pirates are 59-53-0 against the spread in their 112 games that had a posted line this season.

Diamondbacks Leaders & Batting Stats

• Christian Walker paces the Diamondbacks in home runs (26) and runs batted in (63).
• Among all hitters in the majors, Walker ranks eighth in home runs and 24th in RBI.
• Walker carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .471 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and five RBI.
• Ketel Marte’s .260 batting average paces his team.
• Of all major league hitters, Marte ranks 128th in homers and 112th in RBI.
• Marte heads into this matchup looking for his seventh game in a row with a hit. During his last 10 games he is hitting .211 with two doubles, two walks and six RBI.
• Daulton Varsho is batting .240 with 16 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs and 35 walks.
• Josh Rojas is batting .273 with 16 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 31 walks.
• Rojas takes a six-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .220 with three doubles, two walks and three RBI.

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

• Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 16 homers while racking up a team-leading batting average of .256.
• Reynolds ranks 43rd in homers and 162nd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has 18 doubles, three triples, six home runs and 39 walks while batting .248.
• Hayes ranks 209th among all hitters in the majors in homers, and 162nd in RBI.
• Ben Gamel has 16 doubles, two triples, four home runs and 32 walks while hitting .243.
• Michael Chavis has put up a team-leading 37 runs batted in.