Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/11/2022

The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-43) visit the San Diego Padres (77-63) at 4:10 PM ET Sunday in a meeting between two of the league’s best hitters. Freddie Freeman is batting .326 this year (first in the league) for the favored Dodgers (-125), while Manny Machado ranks 10th in the majors with a .303 average for the underdog Padres. Los Angeles’ Andrew Heaney and San Diego’s Joe Musgrove have been named the starters for this contest.

Dodgers vs. Padres Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres

We have the Padres on the moneyline at +106 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: San Diego Padres (+106) and Over (7.5)

Dodgers vs. Padres Game Info

• Los Angeles Dodgers probable starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney
• San Diego Padres probable starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove
• Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
• Location: San Diego, California
• Stadium: PETCO Park

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Pitching Matchup

Dodgers Starter Andrew Heaney

• The Dodgers are sending Heaney (2-2) to the mound for his 12th start of the season. He is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 52 innings pitched.
• His most recent appearance was on Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants, when the lefty threw 5 1/3 innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up six hits.
• The 31-year-old has put up a 2.94 ERA and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings across 11 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .216 to his opponents.
• Heaney heads into this matchup with two quality starts under his belt this season.
• Heaney will try to extend a four-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.2 frames per appearance).
• He meets a Padres offense that ranks 12th in the league with 618 runs while batting .241 as a squad. It has a collective .382 slugging percentage (23rd in MLB play) and has hit a total of 132 home runs (21st in MLB).
• Heaney has thrown 4 2/3 innings without giving up an earned run on four hits, while striking out three against the Padres this season.

Padres Starter Joe Musgrove

• The Padres will send Musgrove (9-6) to the mound for his 26th start this season.
• The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he gave up four earned runs and allowed nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• The 29-year-old has pitched in 25 games this season with an ERA of 3.16, a 4.606 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.080.
• In 25 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in 19 of them.
• In 25 starts this season, Musgrove has lasted five or more innings 22 times, with an average of 6.0 innings per appearance.
• The Dodgers have scored 745 runs this season, which ranks first in MLB. They are batting .260 for the campaign with 186 home runs, fourth in the league.
• This season, the right-hander has pitched against the Dodgers in one game, and they have gone 5-for-25 with a triple, two home runs and three RBI over seven innings.
• Among qualified Major League pitchers this season, the 29-year-old’s 3.16 ERA ranks 19th, 1.080 WHIP ranks 20th, and 8.9 K/9 ranks 16th.

Dodgers Betting Picks & Insights

• The Dodgers have been favorites in 139 games this season and won 98 (70.5%) of those contests.
• Los Angeles has a record of 97-41, a 70.3% win rate, when favored by -125 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The Dodgers have a 55.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• So far this season, Los Angeles and its opponents have hit the over in 66 of their 144 games with a total.
• The Dodgers are 87-57-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Betting Picks & Insights

• The Padres have been victorious in 20, or 50%, of the 40 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• This season, San Diego has come away with a win 16 times in 32 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 48.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• San Diego and their opponents have hit the over in 69 of their 141 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• The Padres have an against the spread mark of 60-81-0 in 141 games with a line this season.

Dodgers Leaders & Batting Stats

• Freeman leads the Dodgers with a team-high batting average of .326.
• Among all batters in MLB, Freeman’s home run total ranks him 52nd, and his RBI tally puts him 10th.
• Freeman carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .526 with two doubles, three home runs, three walks and eight RBI.
• Mookie Betts has put his power on display as he paces his team with 33 home runs.
• Including all major league batters, Betts is sixth in home runs and 32nd in RBI.
• Trea Turner has collected a team-best 94 runs batted in.
• Turner will look to build on his eight-game hitting in this game. In his last 10 outings he is batting .233 with three doubles, a triple, a home run, three walks and eight RBI.
• Will Smith has 24 doubles, a triple, 21 home runs and 51 walks while hitting .263.
• Smith brings a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .286 with two doubles, two home runs, two walks and six RBI.

Padres Leaders & Batting Stats

• Machado leads the Padres in home runs (28), runs batted in (90) and has recorded a team-best batting average of .303.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Machado’s home run total is 13th and his RBI tally is 10th.
• Machado carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .263 with two home runs, two walks and two RBI.
• Juan Soto is batting .241 with 20 doubles, two triples, 24 home runs and 118 walks.
• Soto is currently 29th in homers and 102nd in RBI in the major leagues.
• Josh Bell is hitting .279 with 28 doubles, three triples, 17 home runs and 71 walks.
• Jurickson Profar is batting .240 with 32 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs and 69 walks.