Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks – Week 1

by | Sep 1, 2022

The Miami Dolphins (0-0) and the New England Patriots (0-0) play on Sunday, September 11, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium in a clash of AFC East opponents. Find more below on the Dolphins vs. Patriots betting line, injury report, head-to-head stats, best bets and more.

The Patriots are 3-point underdogs against the Dolphins (the game has a total of 47 points).

Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread and Betting Line

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite spread odds Underdog spread odds Total Over total odds Under total odds
Dolphins -3 -111 -109 47 -111 -109

Dolphins vs. Patriots Game Info

  • Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Computer Picks

Prediction for Dolphins vs Patriots
Spread Pick Total Pick Predicted Score
Patriots (+3) Under (47) Patriots 25, Dolphins 19

Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, the Dolphins were 9-7-1 last year.
  • The Dolphins’ ATS record as 3-point favorites or more was 4-2 last season.
  • Last season, seven of the Dolphins’ 17 games hit the over.
  • The Patriots allowed 17.8 points per game last year, about the same amount as the 20.1 the Dolphins scored.
  • In games where the Dolphins scored more than 17.8 points last year, they were 7-3.
  • The Patriots’ defense allowed 310.8 yards per game last season, just 3.4 yards more than the 307.4 the Dolphins’ offense averaged. The Dolphins picked up 5.0 yards per play, while the Patriots allowed 5.3.
  • The Dolphins’ record last season when they accumulated more than the Patriots’ season average in total yards allowed (310.8): 4-3.
  • Miami Dolphins Leaders

  • Teddy Bridgewater had a passing stat line last season of 3,052 yards with a 66.9% completion rate (285-for-426), 18 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and an average of 179.5 yards per game.
  • Myles Gaskin picked up 612 rushing yards (36.0 per game) and three touchdowns last season.
  • Tyreek Hill hauled in 111 catches for 1,239 yards (72.9 per game) while being targeted 159 times. He also scored nine touchdowns.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah’s hard work last season put up a stat line of 9.0 sacks, 9.0 TFL and 41 tackles.
  • Jerome Baker was a wrecking ball on the field, collecting 92 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one interception last year.
  • Xavien Howard collected five interceptions while adding 50 tackles, one sack, and 16 passes defended last year.
  • Miami Dolphins Season Stats

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 215.2 (3658) 17
    Rush yards 92.2 (1568) 30
    Points scored 20.1 (341) 22
    Pass yards against 227.7 (3871) 16
    Rush yards against 109.8 (1867) 13
    Points allowed 21.9 (373) 15

    Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Patriots beat the spread 10 times in 17 games last year.
  • The Patriots had an ATS record of 3-1 as underdogs of 3 points or greater last season.
  • The Patriots had nine of its 17 games go over the point total last season.
  • The Patriots averaged 5.3 more points last year (27.2) than the Dolphins gave up (21.9).
  • The Patriots were 9-2 overall when scoring more than 21.9 points last season.
  • The Dolphins’ defense gave up 337.5 yards per game last season, just 15.9 yards fewer than the 353.4 the Patriots’ offense gained. The Patriots picked up 5.9 yards per play, while the Dolphins allowed 5.7.
  • In contests where the Patriots offense totaled more than the Dolphins’ average yard allowance last season (337.5), the team was 6-3.
  • New England Patriots Leaders

  • Mac Jones threw for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns last season.
  • Damien Harris accumulated 929 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground during last year’s campaign.
  • Jakobi Meyers was targeted 7.4 times per game and collected 866 receiving yards and two touchdowns over the course of 2021.
  • Matthew Judon proved to be a strong defender last year, recording 12.5 sacks, 14.0 TFL and 60 tackles.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley had an impactful defensive performance last season with 108 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and one sack.
  • Kyle Dugger hauled in four interceptions in addition to 84 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and five passes defended a year ago.
  • New England Patriots Season Stats

    Stat Average (Total) Rank
    Pass yards 226.9 (3857) 14
    Rush yards 126.5 (2151) 8
    Points scored 27.2 (462) 6
    Pass yards against 187.1 (3181) 2
    Rush yards against 123.7 (2103) 22
    Points allowed 17.8 (303) 2

    Dolphins and Patriots Injury Report

    Player Pos. Injury Status
    Player Pos. Injury Status

    Dolphins and Patriots’ Recent Performance

    The Dolphins fell short of the playoffs a year ago after going 9-8. They put up 20.1 points per game (22nd in the league) while their defense allowed 21.9 (15th). The Patriots’ 2021 record was 10-7, and they lost in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. They averaged 27.2 points per game on offense (sixth in the NFL) while giving up 17.8 per contest on defense (second).

    Betting Tips for Dolphins vs. Patriots

    After looking at all of the key trends and stats for this matchup, our best bet against the spread is Patriots (+3). Our computer picks see the scoring going under the total of 47 points, with the teams finishing with a final score of Patriots 25, Dolphins 19 when it’s sorted out on the field.

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