Expected Value: The Key to Winning at Sports Gambling

by | Oct 12, 2020

SITPicks.com 9 Sports Betting 9 Expected Value: The Key to Winning at Sports Gambling

Sports are a passion for many, and it is a dream scenario for individuals to start making money by predicting outcomes. It might seem easy at times, but if it were a simple process, more people would be cashing in.

There are several keys to increasing the chances of winning in sports gambling, and too many people do not stay disciplined enough to increase their chances. The sportsbooks might technically always have an advantage, but sports betting can be a lucrative option with the right knowledge.

Hunting for expected value opportunities

There are way too many sports gamblers who feel the urge to place way too many bets. When that happens, it often leads to taking a bigger risk that will not pay off enough to win money continually. Every once in a while these picks might end up successful, but it is not a solid long-term strategy.

A betting term that many successful gamblers refer to is known as expected value. Hunting for those positive expected values when gambling on sports is swinging the advantage into the hands of the gambler. It takes a fair amount of knowledge and a keen eye on finding those opportunities, but they are there virtually every sports night.

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This is where a lot of people rely on the experts here at Sports Information Traders. There is a lot to be learned with expected value just by going off of expert picks every single day. It is all about the quality of picks when trying to end up on the positive long-term. Too many people focus on quantity, especially during busy parts of the season. Gambling without any advantage is a disaster for most.

Where is it easiest to find expected value?

The two areas we recommend here at Sports Information Traders to look for expected value in a gambler’s perspective are teaser options and prop bets. They are both a little more skewed towards gamblers, and when targeting the right options, it can be a calculated risk.

Teasers go off of current betting lines. It is best to wait right before the contest is about to start. Since it is a teaser, a person might get a slightly better set of odds that can sway the expected value of the bet.

The second option is prop betting, and something that is often recommended to those just starting and wanting to find some positive expected value bets. The reason why is that prop bets are sometimes a little more obvious than people realize. Yes, there is a gamble on betting on clothes to share things, but it is a way to build up a bankroll if it seems like a virtual lock.

Staying disciplined

The most disciplined gamblers increase their chances in many ways only by avoiding the temptation of putting down money on every game they have interest in. Take college football as just one example. On any given weekend, there can be 50 games to put money down on in hopes of winning big. The positive expected value options are slim, but maybe there is a chance of getting lucky.

A smarter gambler looking to make money long-term will focus on the positive expected value options only, and ignore the rest. This gives the gambler the advantage every single time, which should lead to a higher chance of victory.

Why expected value pays

Everyone knows that at the end of the day, sportsbooks are making more money than they are handing out. This is the reason why a lot of people look at gambling as a huge risk, but what people need to understand is that these numbers refer to every single customer. If people are placing smart bets and hunting expected value, and then four people not using any sound strategy, the sportsbook can make all the profit they need on those four people. Even if the person making smart bets earning money every day, the sportsbook still wins.

Those who become very disciplined and figure out as much as possible with expected value can start to see success. Although the concept is a little vague since expected value comes from anywhere, it might seem complicated to understand. However, when opportunities pop up, most start to figure out how to identify faster and faster.

 

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