Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/28/2022

Following a big two-homer game last time out, Bobby Dalbec leads the Boston Red Sox (49-50) into action as -104 underdogs against the Cleveland Guardians (50-47). First pitch from Fenway Park at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday. Triston McKenzie takes the mound for Cleveland while Kutter Crawford is Boston’s starter for the contest.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox

We have the Red Sox on the moneyline at -104 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Boston Red Sox (-104) and Over (9)

Guardians vs. Red Sox Game Info

• Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie
• Boston Red Sox probable starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
• Game Day: Thursday, July 28, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• Stadium: Fenway Park

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Pitching Matchup

Guardians Starter Triston McKenzie

• McKenzie (7-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched) makes the start for the Guardians, his 18th of the season.
• In his last appearance on Saturday, the right-hander threw 5 2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox, allowing one earned run while surrendering four hits.
• The 24-year-old has put together a 3.11 ERA and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings across 18 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .198 to his opponents.
• McKenzie is looking to collect his 11th quality start of the year in this outing.
• McKenzie will aim to last five or more innings for his sixth straight start. He’s averaging 5.3 innings per outing.
• He meets a Red Sox offense that ranks 11th in the league with 452 runs while batting .255 as a unit. It has a collective .411 slugging percentage (ninth in MLB action) and has hit a total of 99 home runs (17th in MLB).
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season, the 24-year-old ranks 25th in ERA (3.11), ninth in WHIP (.981), and 32nd in K/9 (8.4).

Red Sox Starter Kutter Crawford

• Crawford (2-3) will take the mound for the Red Sox, his sixth start of the season.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed 6 2/3 innings while giving up three earned runs on five hits in a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
• The 26-year-old has an ERA of 4.50 and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .242 in 14 games this season.
• If he completes six or more innings with three or fewer earned runs allowed, he’ll earn his third quality start in a row.
• Crawford has four starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Guardians rank sixth in MLB with a .253 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 16th in the league (.389) and 77 home runs.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

• The Guardians have entered the game as favorites 47 times this season and won 30, or 63.8%, of those games.
• Cleveland is 28-15 this season when entering a game favored by -116 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 53.7% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
• Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 49 of their 105 opportunities.
• The Guardians are 56-49-0 against the spread in their 105 chances this season.

Red Sox Betting Picks & Insights

• The Red Sox have won in 18, or 39.1%, of the 46 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
• This season, Boston has come away with a win 16 times in 42 chances when named as an underdog of at least -104 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 51% chance of walking away with the win.
• Contests with Boston have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 45 of 99 chances this season.
• The Red Sox are 51-48-0 against the spread in their 99 games that had a posted line this season.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

• Jose Ramirez is the Guardians best power option, hitting 19 round-trippers this season in addition to delivering 79 RBI, both team highs.
• Of all hitters in baseball, Ramirez’s home run total places him 21st, and his RBI tally puts him third.
• Amed Rosario is batting .296 with 18 doubles, six triples, four home runs and 19 walks.
• Rosario ranks 249th in homers in the majors, and 129th in RBI.
• Rosario enters this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is hitting .304 with a double, a triple and three RBI.
• Steven Kwan is batting .294 with 15 doubles, three triples, two home runs and 33 walks.
• Kwan has at least one base hit in 10 straight games. In his last 10 outings he is batting .370 with four doubles, a home run, two walks and five RBI.
• Josh Naylor is hitting .279 with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 19 walks.
• Naylor is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. In his last five games he is batting .273 with a double, a home run, a walk and two RBI.

Red Sox Leaders & Batting Stats

• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .317 with 27 doubles, seven home runs and 37 walks.
• Among all hitters in MLB, Bogaerts’ home run total ranks 166th and his RBI tally is 93rd.
• Bogaerts has collected a hit in five straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .389 with three doubles, a walk and two RBI.
• Alex Verdugo has 20 doubles, six home runs and 22 walks while hitting .265.
• Verdugo is 185th in homers and 42nd in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• J.D. Martinez has 30 doubles, nine home runs and 31 walks while hitting .295.
• Christian Vazquez is hitting .281 with 18 doubles, eight home runs and 17 walks.