Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/4/2022

A pair of division rivals take the field Monday when the second-place Cleveland Guardians (40-36) visit the fourth-place Detroit Tigers (30-47). Bookmakers favor the Guardians (-129) for the contest, which starts at 1:10 PM ET. Cleveland’s Zach Plesac gets the start, and he’ll go against Detroit’s Garrett Hill.

Guardians vs. Tigers Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Guardians vs. Tigers

We have the Tigers on the moneyline at +109 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going under the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Detroit Tigers (+109) and Under (8.5)

Guardians vs. Tigers Game Info

• Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
• Detroit Tigers probable starting pitcher: Garrett Hill
• Game Day: Monday, July 4, 2022
• Game Time: 1:10 PM ET
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• Stadium: Comerica Park

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Pitching Matchup

Guardians Starter Zach Plesac

• Plesac (2-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 79 1/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Guardians, his 15th of the season.
• His most recent time out was on Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins, when the right-hander tossed six scoreless innings while allowing three hits.
• In 14 games this season, the 27-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.86, with 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .249 against him.
• Plesac is looking to prolong a sixth-game quality start streak in this outing.
• Plesac will look to build upon a seven-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.2 innings per appearance).
• The opposing Tigers offense has the 29th-ranked slugging percentage (.335) and is last in MLB play with 46 home runs. It has a collective .228 batting average, and is 27th in MLB with 572 total hits and last in MLB action scoring 231 runs.
• The 27-year-old’s 3.86 ERA ranks 42nd, 1.223 WHIP ranks 38th, and 6.5 K/9 ranks 56th among qualifying pitchers this season.

Tigers Starter Garrett Hill

• Hill will make his first start of the season for the Tigers.
• The 26-year-old right-hander will make his MLB debut.
• The Guardians rank 13th in MLB with a .244 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 19th in the league (.380) and 60 home runs.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Guardians have been favored 36 times and won 24, or 66.7%, of those games.
• Cleveland is 16-9 this season when entering a game favored by -129 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.3% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
• Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 38 of their 82 chances.
• The Guardians are 42-40-0 against the spread this season.

Tigers Betting Picks & Insights

• The Tigers have been underdogs in 58 games this season and have come away with the win 22 times (37.9%) in those contests.
• Detroit has a win-loss record of 17-32 when favored by +109 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Tigers have a 47.8% chance of pulling out a win.
• Detroit and their opponents have gone over in 26 of their 77 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Tigers are 35-42-0 against the spread in their 77 games that had a posted line this season.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

• The Guardians best power option comes in the form of Jose Ramirez and his 16-home-run 63-RBI season, both team highs.
• Ramirez ranks 20th in home runs and fourth in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Amed Rosario is batting .289 with 12 doubles, five triples, three home runs and 16 walks.
• Rosario ranks 251st in homers and 173rd in RBI in the majors.
• Rosario heads into this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is hitting .389 with two doubles, a home run, four walks and two RBI.
• Josh Naylor is hitting .273 with 13 doubles, 10 home runs and 15 walks.
• Naylor has at least one base hit in two games in a row. During his last five outings he is hitting .238 with two home runs and four RBI.
• Andres Gimenez’s .303 batting average is a team-high mark.

Tigers Leaders & Batting Stats

• Javier Baez leads the Tigers with seven home runs and runs batted in, driving in 26.
• In all of the big leagues, Baez is 126th in homers and 150th in RBI.
• Jonathan Schoop is batting .191 with 12 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 10 walks.
• Schoop ranks 151st in homers and 189th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Harold Castro has eight doubles, two triples, four home runs and five walks while hitting .273.
• Miguel Cabrera leads the team in batting average with a mark of .300.