Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights – 9:30 p.m. ET
The top three playoff spots in the West are locked up (Vegas, Colorado and Minnesota), but the fight for seeding continues. For the Avs, the task of knocking off VGK for the 1-seed is looking more and more daunting: The Golden Knights are on a nine-game win streak and have not lost at The Fortress since April 3.
Both teams have injuries and COVID-related absences, but Colorado’s are more impactful: they’ll be without Mikko Rantanen, Brandon Saad, Joonas Donskoi and, most importantly, Philipp Grubauer on Wednesday. That likely leaves backup Devan Dubnyk in a wildly unfair goalie duel with Marc-Andre Fleury.
The Golden Knights make it 10 in a row tonight, and sharp bettors agree, having pushed this line up.
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Pick: Golden Knights -137
DFS Value Play: Alex Tuch ($4500)
New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets Betting Pick for April 28, 2021 @ 9:00 p.m. ET
What do you do when a line seems bizarrely low? Look for reasons to buy into the dog. The fourth-place Nuggets are strangely giving only four points at home to the 11th-place Pelicans.
There’s a lot to like with the Pelicans here. Zion Williamson and company are 16-13 ATS as underdogs this season, and won in Denver as 6.5-point dogs back on March 21. The Nuggets also opened as five-point favorites and, despite 75% of public money riding them, they’ve come down a point and even got as low as -3.5.
The smart money is coming in on New Orleans. We consider ourselves smart most of the time. The Nugs have key injuries in the backcourt, too, so be a good contrarian and grab the points.
Pick: Pelicans +4 (-109)
DFS Value Play: Eric Bledsoe ($4600)
Todays NHL Parlay Play
First Leg – 7:10 p.m. ET
Ben Simmons and the 2-seed 76ers are apparently very motivated. The Nets are 1.5 games up, and Philly is finally completely healthy. This should be an easy home win against a Hawks squad that is decidedly unhealthy.
North of the border, the Maple Leafs get a shot at the Canadiens, who have several key absences — most notably Carey Price (concussion). Toronto has the third-best road record in the league, and they’ll beat the inferior Habs.
Pick: 76ers and Maple Leafs Parlay (+107)
Prop
Valspar Championship – Thursday, 7:00 a.m. ET
Sungjae Im disappointed many bettors when he missed the cut at The Masters, but he bounced back at the RBC Heritage with a T-13. Prior to Augusta, he notched two straight top-20s, and he finished T-4 at the 2019 Valspar, the last edition. A top-20 here is more than reasonable, and a top-10 is worth a sprinkle.
Sungjae Im Top 10 (+275) | Top 20 (+120)
Bold Bet
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets – 6:40 p.m. ET
The Mets are 38-42 since 2018 in Jacob deGrom starts. So getting the Red Sox – owners of MLB’s second-best record – as 2-1 underdogs by virtue of New York’s starter is value too good to pass up. If the Sox can run up deGrom’s pitch count, and get a run or two on the board, maybe he exits early and Boston pulls this out against the Mets’ disappointing bullpen.
Pick: Red Sox +210
Sports betting often comes down to playing the markets as much as it does knowing about the sports in question (see: Pelicans pick). It’s a fickle beast: Sometimes you have to jump on a line immediately to get the best value; other times, patience is a virtue, and waiting for the right number can be the difference between winning and losing your bet. Stay focused on your day job… but always remember to check in on the lines.