Gamblers specializing in basketball feel like they have an edge over the sportsbook. They can focus on one particular sport, and they like to put their knowledge up against anyone else.
Predicting a basketball game might seem easy, but even the best are only slightly above 50% long-term. What are the best ways to predict a basketball game? Using some common tactics sharps use to pick consistent winners will lead to success.
Table of Contents
Pay Attention to the Schedule
Not all basketball schedules are created equally. Whether it’s the NBA or college, there are such things as “schedule losses” for an opponent. Sportsbooks know this, and gamblers must know as well if they don’t want to fall victim to being underprepared.
The most notorious example is the second game of a back-to-back on the road. NBA teams face a few of these a year, and it can even be an issue for college players occasionally. It’s very challenging to bounce back the very next night and play any team while on the road. The home team is almost guaranteed victory unless there is a huge discrepancy in talent between the two. This really evens everything out if the rested team is the underdog in the NBA.
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The rested team always has the advantage, especially late in the year. Paying attention to schedule before betting makes a big difference. Sportsbooks know this and adjust lines accordingly, but there are still some decent options out there.
Injury and Rest
It’s easy to get banged up during the year and basketball. Coaching staffs will be pretty coy about what they are doing until a little bit before game time on non-major injuries. There’s a time and a place to bet early, but sometimes it pays to wait until right before tipoff. A long NBA season usually involves a lot of smaller injuries, so teams are more encouraged than ever to sneak in a little bit of rest for top players.
Resting players is pretty much a given in today’s NBA. A star player might only play 65-70 games in an 82-game regular season. That’s because teams would rather have them at full strength for 65 games than have to struggle through some of the other games.
By the middle of the season, some gamblers will have a pretty good idea of how coaches will find rest opportunities for star players. They tend to try to stagger things so that all the best players aren’t sitting out at the same time. By picking up on somebody’s tendencies, gamblers can get an edge.
Team Matchups
All these other tips help to a certain degree, but the actual team matchup is also huge. There are just the facts that some NBA teams match up better against others, even if the records don’t show it initially.
Basketball is trending towards positionless play, and many teams are going without a traditional center. For those teams that still start quite a bit of size, they can be a matchup nightmare for smaller teams. Pay attention to how teams tend to do against each other instead of only the records for the two squads.
Why Smart Basketball Betting Matters
Plenty of people are fans of basketball, and that means they think they know what they are doing from a betting perspective. It takes more than knowledge of the game to have success, as most sharp gamblers are looking for every little edge possible. Predicting NBA games is a challenge, and most take quite a few losses before they find a winning formula.
The tough part about basketball gambling is that sportsbooks are always evolving as well. Trying to stay ahead of them means constant tweaking to formulate everything just right. The best find ways, while others end up on the losing side.