Baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports a person can bet on. Many different factors play into it, and understanding a bit more about how it all works is important.
Underdogs always have a fighting chance in a matchup, but does baseball cater to the weaker team more than most?
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How Often Do Underdogs Win in Baseball?
Statistics show that the underdog wins about 40% to 45% of the time at the MLB level. Large unders, viewed as teams that are getting +300 or more, win about 20% of the time.
Why Do Underdogs Win So Much in Baseball?
Several factors play into why underdogs have a good chance of winning in baseball at the MLB level. Having an idea of what plays into it can make a big difference.
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Pitching
Baseball relies a lot on overall matchups. If a pitcher goes out and performs well, any MLB team can beat another out there. This variable doesn’t come into play with any other major sport out there.
Teams not only need a strong starter, but a strong and rested bullpen. They rely on their bullpen more than ever these days, using 3-4 arms per game even when shutting a team out.
Low-Scoring Contests
Lower scoring games always have a better chance of going in the underdog’s favor. Take a look at sports like the NHL and soccer as well for more instances. If an underdog starts scoring early, it takes a big effort for the favorite to bounce back. Baseball is already low-scoring, but if the game is called early due to inclement weather, there’s even more of a chance that few runs are scored and underdogs have a shot.
Parity
MLB has done a great job of bringing parity to the sport. Even though a lot of people complain about the disparities in payrolls, there has not been a repeat champion in MLB since 2000. In those, 21 years since, 15 teams have won World Series.
What Sports Have the Fewest Underdog Wins?
In major professional sports, the NBA has the lowest winning percentage for underdogs. This comes down to scoring more than anything. The NBA game is 48 minutes long, and most teams are scoring 100 points or more these days. Factor in the impact star players can have, and this has all the makings of a tough matchup for underdogs.
Even with a run spread, there are plenty of underdog opportunities for gamblers. The 1.5-run spread isn’t enough to even out some mismatch games, still making it a good bet on the underdog.
Sports with big skill gaps also have underdogs winning rarely. There are so many teams in NCAA football and basketball that an underdog might not win more than 25% of the time. There will always be value in certain instances with underdogs, but constantly betting on them usually ends up being a lost cause.
Is Baseball Betting Worth It?
With underdogs winning so frequently and predictably seemingly changing all the time, some wonder if baseball betting is worth it. Unless a person is really into baseball and follows the trends closely, they likely won’t win long-term in baseball betting. There’s just too much variance and integral parts of studying the teams and seeing which option is the best.
All that said, plenty of people make a living betting on baseball. Just like pitching adds variance, it can also give sharp bettors an edge. They have a good understanding of how long a starter will go, who is available in the bullpen, and so much more.
Underdogs are always going to have a chance to win in anything. The saying in Major League Baseball is that every team is guaranteed to win 60 games and lose 60 games. It’s just a matter of what they do with the remaining 42 games that dictate whether or not they make the postseason. Even the worst team in baseball can end up winning a series or even sweeping the best team in baseball with so much parity.