Making smart bets on underdogs in any sport can pay off hugely. Of course, they are underdogs for a reason, and it could be challenging to figure out if one team will even find a way to compete against another in college football.
Despite more than 100 FBS teams in college football, it’s been a very top-heavy sport in the last decade. This gives underdogs a relatively low shot of winning consistently compared to other sports. Just how low often surprises people.
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How Often Do Underdogs Win in College Football?
Underdogs only way in about 20% to 25% of the time in FBS college football. That percentage drops significantly when it’s a game sporting a double-digit pointspread.
What Puts Underdogs at a Huge Disadvantage in College Football?
Why do underdogs find it so challenging to beat the favorite in college football? A variety of factors play into such a low percentage.
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Depth
Every FBS college football team has a few players who can match up with any other team in the country. However, a 60-minute college football game is very physical. The best team not only has talent at all positions, but they have backups who are ready to play to keep things going as well.
It’s not that uncommon to see an underdog keep things closed in the first half, only to be blown away in the second half. This is when depth starts to show. It’s simply impossible for a team to go out there and only use 22 players the entire game. The favorite is bringing a former five-star recruit off of the bench, while the underdog could be using low-level recruits or even walk on‘s.
Budgets
College football is filled with the haves and the have-nots. Even with any major conferences, teams will have a much higher budget to work with to put a productive team out on the field.
Recruiting budgets are often looked at as a huge difference-maker. Schools willing to spend money every year tend to put themselves at least in the discussion for a college football championship.
Facilities also sway teams significantly. Huge stadiums are built that way for a reason, as teams can pretty easily sell out for certain games. Having over 100,000 people in the stadiums seems insane, but teams like Penn State, Alabama, Ohio State, and more sell them out regularly
Offensive-Oriented Game
Football at all levels has opened up quite a bit to encourage offense. Teams are putting up tons of passing yards every game, relying less on the running game and more on pure skill to put up numbers in a hurry.
The easier it is for skilled teams to score, the easier it is to have an advantage in a game even if they fall behind. Having a two-touchdown lead in a college football game isn’t nearly what it used to be when teams were looking to whittle away on a drive with conservative runs.
Is There Value in Betting Underdogs in College Football?
It might seem like a lost cause betting only on underdogs in college football, but some people find value all the time. Just because the number of upsets is a little less doesn’t mean that there aren’t some great paydays out there.
Those who win consistently betting on underdogs usually have a mix of close games and longshot options. Even if a team is an underdog and getting a point or two on the pointspread, they still have a very reasonable chance to win. Gambling on double-digit underdogs all the time will rarely yield results, but taking a chance once in a while is worth it.
All in all, college football takes a slightly different approach than the NFL. The suggestion is to focus on one or the other early on, and then possibly branch out after finding success. There’s a lot more parity in the NFL, which gives the underdog a much better chance of winning on a week-to-week basis.