How Often Do Underdogs Win in NBA?

The NBA is without question one of the most popular leagues in the world to place wagers on. There are fans worldwide tuning into the games, and in a star-driven league, the favorites are easy to identify.

Given that there are fewer players on each team and on the court at one time, do underdogs have the opportunity to pull off wins? The numbers might surprise even seasoned gamblers when looking at and understanding NBA betting lines.

How Often Do Underdogs Win in the NBA?

The NBA is full of surprises, and underdogs always have a chance to win. The saying is that all 30 teams can beat one another on a given night. In the 2021-2022 regular season, there were several instances where lesser-known teams beat more established title contenders. However, only three teams had a winning record as the underdog. In general, underdogs win about one out of every three times (33%) in the NBA.

What Makes It So Difficult for Underdogs to Win in the NBA?

It’s not always easy for an underdog to find success in professional basketball. Many factors can influence a team’s performance. This means that it’s difficult to predict which team will win a NBA matchup on any given night, making them all exciting to watch.

Home Court Advantage

A home-court advantage for any team is a factor in the regular season, but it goes to another level in the postseason. This is when fans get into the games and start to support their team as much as possible.

With seats so close to the court, home-court advantage can play a factor in games. It’s said that it most affects role players, as they perform better on their home court compared to on the road. Little things such as sightlines and even sleeping at home compared to a hotel can make a difference.

There will always be exceptions to the rule, as some players will thrive being the villain on the road. There have even been teams in the NBA that have had better seasons thanks to their willingness to go on the road. However, most teams battle to get that home-court advantage in the playoffs for a reason. If everything’s on the line, teams want to have Game 7 of a playoff series in front of their fans.

Inexperience

Inexperienced teams usually are at a disadvantage when going up against ones that have been together for a while and know how to win at a high level. Even if the younger team has the talent to pull off a victory, it’s hard when the other team can handle their business.

This becomes especially apparent in the playoffs. Rarely do teams make the playoffs for the first time in a while, and then make a deep run. Instead, they have to earn their way to the top by progressing further and further as seasons go on. After getting their feet wet for a year or two, that’s when they can become a serious contender.

Rest

NBA teams are smarter about giving their players rest. Instead of asking them to play all 82 games in a year, getting 65 or 70 high-quality games from the star players is the preferred method.

Sports gamblers who capitalize at just the right time can get very favorable lines by paying attention to resting schedules. It might not be officially announced that a key player is taking a game off to rest, but some gamblers study trends and figure out when teams are likely to do this. It’s a savvy move for those who can pull it off.

Pay attention to particularly busy parts of a schedule. For example, if a team is in the middle of a back-to-back, they could likely rest a veteran or two in the second game. If one game is against a playoff contender and the other one is not, teams are likely to pick the game that’s more important to them.

Fatigue

The reason why teams are willing to rest players without injuries is that they want to cut down on general fatigue. However, even the most conditioned athletes in the NBA are still going to go through some fatigue issues from time to time.

The NBA is trying to eliminate scheduling issues that put teams on back-to-back nights on the road. There are also the dreaded three games in four nights, which can wear out a lot of teams.

There is such a thing in the NBA as a schedule loss. This is a term thrown around to describe a tough game on the back end of a back-to-back. While the teams might be similar on paper, this is a bad situation for the visiting squad. They likely got into town late that night, or very early the next morning. With limited time to work out the kinks, it becomes a challenging ordeal.

Injuries

Injuries have always been part of the game in the NBA. It’s becoming a physically demanding sport, even if fouls and other dirty plays have been cleaned up. Teams are pushing the pace and running up and down the court, and this all puts players at physical risk.

An injury to a key player can largely sway a money line in the NBA. Sportsbooks will sometimes pull a line altogether if there is a major injury. They will not allow new bets to come in again until official word is out.

Why Do People Feel So Strongly About Favorites in the NBA?

The NBA is a star-driven league, which means that the best players will have the ball in their hands at the end of the game. There are also only five players on the court at one time. All this adds up to favorites usually getting the best of underdogs.

Other sports need a lot more help from the entire team to pull off an upset as an underdog. In basketball, a team might only need one or two players to have great games to pull off the upset. This happens quite a bit in college basketball, but it occurs in the NBA as well.

Examining Favorites and Underdogs in the NBA Playoffs

Out of the major team sports, the NBA is arguably the best at making sure that the best team hoists the trophy. Anyone looking for underdog picks in the playoffs might find themselves struggling. Why do underdogs have such a hard time beating the favorites in the postseason?

On a game-by-game basis, underdogs certainly have opportunities to win. However, the NBA uses a best-of-seven games series for every round of the playoffs. With so many games to play, it is usually going to result in the favorites moving on.

One of the biggest advantages in basketball is having a Game 7 at home if necessary. Teams that are playing in front of their home crowd have roughly a 65% to 70% chance of winning a Game 7. Not only are they the better team on paper in most cases, but they get a chance to play in front of a very raucous crowd.

Is It a Smart Strategy to Bet on Underdogs in the NBA?

Like anything, underdog betting in the NBA is a calculated risk. There is undoubtedly value in betting on underdogs at times, but it’s taking the right approach that makes such a difference.

Underdogs don’t have to win outright if a person is going with a point spread. The average person needs to know this before jumping into NBA betting (or sports betting in general). That can be a way to even out the odds and make life a little bit easier. Take a look at trends and how teams do against the spread, and this could give some valuable information.

Since most underdogs are getting decent payouts with the money line, there’s also the option of betting on underdogs and hoping for big wins to balance things out. Instead of having to win a little more than half of the bets, a person focusing on underdogs might only need to win one out of every three or even four bets to have success.

Underdogs win enough in the NBA to make people interested, but it is a sport that tends to play out as it should. There’s unpredictability at any level of sport, but the NBA does the best job of making sure the best teams are there at the end to compete for a championship.