There are a lot of factors to consider when placing a wager on an NBA game. Not only do you have to pay attention to trends, who is hot and who is not, as well as head-to-head performance, but there are the lines and spreads themselves. Sometimes, it almost feels like you have to be a math wizard to figure it all out.
One factor that many betting on the NBA do not consider is the coach himself. While coaches seem to play a much bigger role in a team’s success in sports like football or hockey, they still can have a dramatic impact on the team’s performance.
This is especially true when there is a star player who has also anointed himself as a coach on the court. This is often how Lebron James is viewed and why he has had tumultuous relationships with coaches over the years.
For the new coach, it can be a tough lesson in getting players to listen. It is one thing when that coach was an assistant, but is altogether different when they have the final say.
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How This Impacts Wagers
If you have spent any time betting on games, it does not take long to realize that the oddsmakers who set lines and spreads are actually quite brilliant. They have worked their way into these positions because they know how to handicap games so well that they are earning casinos and sportsbooks millions of dollars a year. So, it would seem that they would have already factored in if a team had a new head coach.
They may have already done so. At least, as much as they can. Realistically, most oddsmakers are settings odds based upon historical data. Things such as overall record, history against that team, and other similar factors are used to help make the line.
However, that is not really available with new head coaches. They cannot consider how well that NBA coach did when he was an assistant because he had very little impact on the overall game. In addition, they cannot factor how he has been doing with his new team because the sample size is so small.
This makes the new head coach a wild card in the overall scheme of things. He may have very little impact on a game or could be a huge factor. When placing a wager you want to know how you can determine this, and here are some helpful factors to consider.
Is There a Star Player?
This is the biggest factor of all. When Lebron James was in Cleveland, he was the head coach. The guy calling the substitutions and plays from the sidelines was often doing so only at the liege of James.
When you see a new head coach running a team with an established star, y0u can be sure that the star NBA player is having a big say over how the game is called. Maybe he is having the ultimate say.
This would seem to muddy the waters, but it actually doesn’t. What you can do is gauge whether a bet is well based upon that player and his success against the opponent. If he has had huge games that have led to victories in the past, you can be reasonably sure this will be the case here as well.
The coach understands that he needs the support of that player, and so giving him a more prominent role is job security. This can be a huge advantage in helping you to place a smart bet.
What Is the New Head Coach’s History with That Team?
While he may have never coached a game before, that does not mean the new head coach does not have a history. If, for example, he comes from a team that had a lot of bad blood about that night’s opponent, he may be all in to show them up. It does not matter whether he has come from a completely different team. He still hates the opponent.
What Is the History of Success?
This is one factor that many will ignore, but don’t do that. If the Chicago Bulls have dominated the Minnesota Timberwolves over the last 20 years, that means that they have done so through several head coaches for both sides. A trend like that can simply not be ignored.
Is He Really That New?
A lot of head coaches had a gig with another team prior to them taking their new job. Take a look at their record when they were coaching the other team. Your focus should be on how well they did against that night’s opponent. If he has had a great deal of success with his previous team against that opponent and his current team has a comparable level of talent, that can be a factor.
What Kind of Team Did He Inherit?
This is something that should go without saying, but it needs to be mentioned. If the new head coach took over a dog of a team, and he did not get a highly touted player coming out of the draft, it would not be surprising to see that team struggle. The NBA is made for stars and when a team does not have star players, they are likely to struggle.
These are all things that can help you to make a smart wager when you are betting on NBA games and a new head coach is involved in the scenario. Take a look at how the oddsmakers see this game going, but also consider these factors.