Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks – NHL Playoffs First Round Game 6

by | May 11, 2022

SITPicks.com 9 Clive Smith 9 Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks – NHL Playoffs First Round Game 6

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs play Thursday for Game 6 of the NHL Playoffs First Round at Amalie Arena, beginning at 7:30 PM ET. The Maple Leafs are up 3-2 in the series. The oddsmakers have made the Lightning solid favorites at -125 on the moneyline, and the Maple Leafs are at +104. Find more below on the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs betting line, injury report, head-to-head stats, best bets and more.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Spread and Betting Line

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Information
Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Lightning -125 Maple Leafs +104

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Info

  • Game Day: Thursday, May 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Arena: Amalie Arena

Computer Predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Computer picks for Lightning vs Maple Leafs
ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Maple Leafs (+1.5) Over (6.5) Lightning 4 Maple Leafs 3

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay has gone 49-24 as the oddsmakers’ choice this season.
  • Through 65 games with moneyline odds shorter than -125 this season, the Lightning have been victorious 46 times.
  • The moneyline odds imply that Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning this contest.

    • Tampa Bay Lightning Leaders

  • Steven Stamkos is currently one of Tampa Bay’s leading contributors (106 total points), having amassed 42 goals and 64 assists.
  • Victor Hedman has 20 goals and 66 assists to total 86 points (one per game).
  • Nikita Kucherov has 25 goals and 44 assists for Tampa Bay.
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5) has a goals against average of 2.5 on the season, and 1712 saves. His .916 save percentage ranks 21st in the league.

    • Tampa Bay Lightning Season Stats

  • The Lightning’s 285 goals this season make them the seventh-best scoring team in the NHL.
  • On defense, the Lightning have been one of the best units in NHL competition, allowing 228 goals to rank sixth.
  • With a +57 goal differential, they’re ranked seventh-best in the NHL.
  • The 63 power-play goals the Lightning have recorded this season have come on 260 power-play chances, ranking them fourth-best in the NHL.
  • The Lightning have the league’s seventh-best power-play conversion rate at 24.2%.
  • The Lightning’s seven shorthanded goals this season rank 12th.
  • The Lightning’s 81.4% penalty-kill success rate is currently ninth-best in the league.
  • With a 50.1% faceoff win percentage, the Lightning have the 15th-ranked percentage in the NHL.
  • The Lightning convert 11.3% of their shots, ranking third in the league.
  • The Lightning average 25.9 hits and 12.7 blocked shots per game.

    • Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • The Maple Leafs have been the underdog 12 times this season, and upset their opponent in five, or 41.7%, of those games.
  • Toronto is 2-5 when it is the underdog by +104 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The win probability for the Maple Leafs, implied from the moneyline, is 49.0%.

    • Toronto Maple Leafs Leaders

  • Toronto’s Auston Matthews has collected 46 assists and 60 goals in 73 games, good for 106 points.
  • Mitchell Marner is pivotal for Toronto’s offense with 97 total points (1.3 per game), including 35 goals and 62 assists through 72 games.
  • William Nylander has 34 goals and 46 assists, for a season point total of 80.
  • Jack Campbell has a 31-9-6 record this season, with a .914 save percentage (24th in the league). In 49 games, he has 1307 saves, and has allowed 123 goals (2.6 goals against average).

    • Toronto Maple Leafs Season Stats

  • The Maple Leafs’ 312 total goals (3.8 per game) are the second-most in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs have allowed 252 total goals (3.1 per game) to rank 19th.
  • They have a +60 goal differential, which is sixth-best in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have scored 63 power-play goals this season, which are fourth-best in the NHL (on 231 power-play chances).
  • The Maple Leafs’ power-play conversion rate (27.3%) paces the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have scored 13 shorthanded goals this season (first among NHL teams).
  • The Maple Leafs’ eighth-best penalty kill rate is 81.7%.
  • The Maple Leafs win 55.1% of their faceoffs. That’s the top figure in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs’ collective 11% shooting percentage ranks fourth in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have not had a shutout win yet this season.

    • Lightning and Maple Leafs Injury Report

    Lightning: None

    Maple Leafs: Petr Mrazek: Out (Groin)

    Betting Tips for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

    We have the Lightning projected as our best bet on the moneyline in this game, and our pick against the spread is the Maple Leafs (+1.5). Our computer model has the scoring going over the total of 6.5 goals when all is said and done.

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