Posted on September 14, 2019, by Travis Pulver
Deciding who you want to win the Super Bowl is easy. We ‘want’ our favorite team to win it. But if we are asked who we would bet on to win the big game, most of us would not say our favorite team. Most people would probably go for one of the flashy teams like the Chiefs or a perennial contender like the Patriots.
According to one sportsbook, that is precisely what many bettors are doing.
At BetOnline.ag, the Kansas City Chiefs are the bet of choice to win the Super Bowl in 14 states followed by the New England Patriots in five states, and Dallas Cowboys in four (LATimes.com). In many cases, regional bias is a likely reason for the support, but it doesn’t explain all:
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- Chiefs: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Washington, D.C.
- Patriots: Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, West Virginia
- Cowboys: Arkansas, New Mexico, Texas, Utah
For a lot of states, which team gamblers are backing should come as no surprise. You would expect Indiana to be behind the Colts, Louisiana the Saints, Maryland the Ravens, and Ohio the Browns. But others are a little surprising like Hawaii (the Jets), Nevada (the Steelers), and Vermont (the Rams).
With two excellent teams in-state, you would think Californians would be betting on either the Rams or Chargers the most—but they are backing the Chiefs instead.
But it is not hard to understand why. The Rams dropped the ball last year in the Super Bowl, and the Chargers have been perennial underachievers. Kansas City, on the other hand, nearly beat the Patriots in the AFC title game last year and have arguably the most explosive offense in the league.
Who wouldn’t want to back them? With gamblers in 14 states favoring the Chiefs, should you throw your support (and money) behind them?
Can the Chiefs win it all this year?
They started the season as the favorites and then put on a show against the Jaguars in Week One winning 40-26. Patrick Mahomes put on a show despite losing Tyreek Hill to an injury. But the Patriots dominated the Steelers in such a fashion that they became the new favorites following Week One (+400; at BetOnline.ag as of September 14).
The Chiefs odds are now +700. So, if you were going to bet on them, now would be the opportune time. Their odds are not going to be longer at any other point during the season. As the wins pile up in the weeks ahead, their odds are going to get shorter and shorter.
If you want the chance to win more money, you will need to take advantage of the odds as they are now. However, just because now is the right time to bet on them doesn’t mean you should.
Kansas City is going to be tough to beat and will likely make it to the AFC title game on the power of their offense alone. But much like last season, their defense is going to lose it for them in the conference championship again.
Much has been said about the Chiefs defense since last season. While they did add a couple of good players and hired a new defensive coordinator, they didn’t do enough. Gardner Minshew, a rookie from Washington State, was able to step in last week after Nick Foles was injured and complete 88 percent of his passes (22-25) for 275 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.
That would be an excellent game for anyone, but for a rookie in his first NFL game? It’s a phenomenal one. If a rookie can do that against the Chiefs defense, what is Tom Brady going to be able to do? The answer is easy—a whole lot more.
Following the crowd is never a winning strategy so don’t take the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year.