Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/16/2022

by | Sep 16, 2022

The Miami Marlins (59-85) will take on the Washington Nationals (49-94) on Friday at 7:05 PM ET. Luke Voit will be looking for his 100th hit of the season for the underdog Nationals (+117) when the game gets underway at Nationals Park. Miami’s Jesus Luzardo gets the start, and he’ll go against Washington’s Josiah Gray.

Marlins vs. Nationals Spread and Betting Line

Marlins vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Marlins -137 +117 7.5 -110 -110 -1.5 +126 -150

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals

After digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup, our best bet is the Nationals on the moneyline at +117. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Washington Nationals (+117) and Over (7.5)

Marlins vs. Nationals Game Info

  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
  • Washington Nationals probable starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
  • Game Day: Friday, September 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 PM ET
  • Location: Washington D.C.
  • Stadium: Nationals Park

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Pitching Matchup

Luzardo Gray
14 GS 25
3-7 W-L 7-9
3.81 ERA 5.06
75.2 IP 131.2
30 BB 60
85 SO 145

Marlins Starter Jesús Luzardo

  • Luzardo makes the start for the Marlins, his 15th of the season. He is 3-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last appearance came on Sunday against the New York Mets, when the lefty went 3 1/3 innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • In 14 games this season, the 24-year-old has an ERA of 3.81, with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .190 against him.
  • Luzardo heads into this outing with seven quality starts under his belt this year.
  • Luzardo will look to collect his 12th game of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.
  • He will face off against a Nationals offense that ranks 11th in MLB with 1212 total hits (on a .251 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .381 (23rd in MLB) with 121 total home runs (27th in MLB).

Nationals Starter Josiah Gray

  • Gray (7-9) will take to the mound for the Nationals and make his 26th start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in 3 1/3 innings pitched against the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, Sept. 8.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched in 25 games this season with an ERA of 5.06, a 2.417 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.375.
  • In 25 starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in eight of them.
  • Gray has made 21 starts of five or more innings in 25 chances this season, and averages 5.1 frames when he pitches.
  • The Marlins are batting .228 this season, 27th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .361 (28th in the league) with 126 home runs.
  • The right-hander has allowed the Marlins to go 29-for-92 with four doubles, a triple, three home runs and 13 RBI in 22 1/3 innings this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have won 31, or 56.4%, of the 55 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Miami has a record of 16-10, a 61.5% win rate, when favored by -137 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 57.8% chance to win.
  • Games involving Miami have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 64 of 144 chances this season.
  • The Marlins are 66-78-0 ATS in their 144 games with a spread this season.

Nationals Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Nationals have been chosen as underdogs in 124 games this year and have walked away with the win 41 times (33.1%) in those games.
  • This year, Washington has won 31 of 101 games when listed as at least +117 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 46.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Contests with Washington have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 69 of 143 chances this season.
  • The Nationals have an against the spread mark of 64-79-0 in 143 games with a line this season.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Miguel Rojas leads the Marlins with a .234 batting average.
  • Rojas’ home runs rank him 248th in the majors, and he is 233rd in RBI.
  • Garrett Cooper has capitalized on opportunities as he leads his team with 48 RBI.
  • Jon Berti is batting .247 with 15 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 36 walks.
  • Joey Wendle is batting .260 with 23 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 14 walks.
Miguel Rojas 127 .234 .282 .325 6 32 100
Garrett Cooper 112 .259 .333 .408 8 48 101
Jon Berti 85 .247 .335 .344 3 24 72
Joey Wendle 92 .260 .299 .369 3 31 81
Brian Anderson 84 .231 .320 .367 8 26 66

Nationals Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Cesar Hernandez is hitting .250 with 27 doubles, four triples, a home run and 42 walks.
  • In all of MLB, Hernandez is 402nd in home runs and 229th in RBI.
  • Hernandez carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .316 with a double, a walk and four RBI.
  • Lane Thomas has a club-best .252 batting average.
  • Thomas ranks 95th in home runs and 131st in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
  • Nelson Cruz paces the Nationals with 64 runs batted in.
  • Voit has collected a team-best 20 home runs.
César Hernández 135 .250 .314 .323 1 33 131
Lane Thomas 128 .252 .305 .420 15 49 109
Nelson Cruz 124 .234 .313 .337 10 64 105
Luke Voit 116 .231 .320 .418 20 63 99
Luis Garcia 75 .287 .300 .423 6 36 84

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