Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/24/2022

by | Jul 24, 2022

The Miami Marlins (44-50) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-55) Sunday to close out a three-game series. The Marlins are favored (-177) to win the rubber match, which starts at 1:35 PM ET from PNC Park. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara and Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller have been named the starters for this contest.

Marlins vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Marlins vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Marlins -177 +151 7.5 -104 -116 -1.5 -104 -116

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Pirates

Our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +151 after analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+151) and Over (7.5)

Marlins vs. Pirates Game Info

  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
  • Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Game Day: Sunday, July 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:35 PM ET
  • Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Stadium: PNC Park

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Alcantara Keller
19 GS 16
9-4 W-L 3-7
1.76 ERA 4.55
138.1 IP 89.0
33 BB 34
123 SO 77

Marlins Starter Sandy Alcantara

  • The Marlins will send Alcantara (9-4) to the mound to make his 20th start of the season as he aims for his 10th win. He is 9-4 with a 1.76 ERA and 123 strikeouts through 138 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Friday, July 15, the right-hander went 8 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • The 26-year-old has put up an ERA of 1.76, with 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, in 19 games this season. Opponents are batting .190 against him.
  • Alcantara is aiming to register his fifth quality start in a row in this outing.
  • Alcantara will look to build on a 14-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 7.1 frames per outing).
  • He will face off against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB with 688 total hits (on a .221 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .367 (28th in MLB) with 98 total home runs (15th in MLB).
  • The 26-year-old ranks second in ERA (1.76), fifth in WHIP (.904), and 35th in K/9 (8.0) among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season.

Pirates Starter Mitch Keller

  • Keller (3-7) will take to the mound for the Pirates and make his 17th start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, July 16, when he gave up no earned runs and allowed five hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies.
  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 4.55, a 2.265 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.461 in 18 games this season.
  • He’s going for his third quality start in a row.
  • Keller will look to pitch five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
  • The Marlins have scored 379 runs this season, which ranks 24th in MLB. They have 744 hits, 22nd in baseball, with 91 home runs (20th in the league).
  • This season, the right-hander has pitched against the Marlins in one game, and they have gone 5-for-25 with a double and an RBI over seven innings.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been favorites in 44 games this season and won 26 (59.1%) of those contests.
  • Miami is 4-2 this season when entering a game favored by -177 or more on the moneyline.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 63.9% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
  • Games involving Miami have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 45 of 94 chances this season.
  • In 94 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 44-50-0 ATS.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 79 games this year and have walked away with the win 31 times (39.2%) in those games.
  • This year, Pittsburgh has won 12 of 34 games when listed as at least +151 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 39.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 39 of their 96 opportunities.
  • The Pirates are 49-47-0 against the spread in their 96 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jesus Aguilar is hitting .248 with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 21 walks.
  • Aguilar’s home runs put him 83rd in MLB, and he ranks 110th in RBI.
  • Aguilar has collected a hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .313 with a walk.
  • Miguel Rojas is batting .238 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 17 walks.
  • Rojas is 183rd in homers and 229th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
  • Rojas enters this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is hitting .222 with two doubles, a walk and an RBI.
  • Garrett Cooper paces the Marlins with a team-high batting average of .279.
  • Jesus Sanchez has 10 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 22 walks while hitting .201.
Miguel Rojas 85 .238 .286 .353 6 22 68
Jesús Aguilar 86 .248 .297 .393 11 36 81
Garrett Cooper 84 .279 .347 .426 7 40 83
Jesús Sánchez 83 .201 .265 .381 11 31 55
Joey Wendle 47 .287 .337 .400 2 18 43

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes is batting .248 with 16 doubles, three triples, four home runs and 35 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .323.
  • Among all hitters in the big leagues, Hayes is 245th in homers and 173rd in RBI.
  • Michael Chavis has driven in the most runs for the Pirates with 32 runs batted in.
  • Chavis is currently 96th in home runs and 150th in RBI in the major leagues.
  • Ben Gamel is hitting .246 with 11 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 24 walks.
  • Diego Castillo is batting .205 with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 11 walks.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 87 .248 .323 .352 4 28 82
Michael Chavis 82 .238 .278 .413 10 32 60
Ben Gamel 61 .246 .333 .377 4 22 47
Diego Castillo 81 .205 .244 .376 10 25 48
Kevin Newman 26 .266 .324 .372 0 12 25

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