Marlins vs. Reds Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/26/2022

by | Jul 26, 2022

Seeking their 46th win of the year, the Miami Marlins (45-51) are favorites (-112) on the moneyline when they take on the Cincinnati Reds (37-58) Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET. Pablo Lopez will get the ball for Miami while Cincinnati counter with Hunter Greene.

Marlins vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Marlins vs Reds Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Marlins -112 -106 8.5 -117 -103 -1.5 +146 -175

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Reds

Our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at -106 after taking a look at all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (-106) and Over (8.5)

Marlins vs. Reds Game Info

  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Hunter Greene
  • Game Day: Tuesday, July 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

López Greene
19 GS 18
6-5 W-L 3-11
3.22 ERA 5.78
109.0 IP 90.1
35 BB 40
107 SO 113

Marlins Starter Pablo López

  • The Marlins will send Lopez (6-5) out to make his 20th start of the season. He is 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 107 strikeouts through 109 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, the righty tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • The 26-year-old has a 3.22 ERA and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings across 19 games this season, while allowing a batting average of .212 to opposing hitters.
  • Lopez has seven quality starts under his belt this year.
  • Lopez is looking for his eighth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance on the hill.
  • The opposing Reds offense has the 21st-ranked slugging percentage (.382) and ranks 21st in MLB play with 91 home runs. It has a collective .241 batting average, and is 22nd in MLB with 759 total hits and 17th in MLB play scoring 419 runs.
  • This season, the 26-year-old ranks 26th in ERA (3.22), 21st in WHIP (1.092), and 22nd in K/9 (8.8) among pitchers who qualify.

Reds Starter Hunter Greene

  • Greene (3-11) will take the mound for the Reds, his 19th start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched on Saturday, July 16 in his last outing, a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • The 22-year-old has pitched in 18 games this season with an ERA of 5.78 and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .239.
  • He has four quality starts in 18 chances this season.
  • Greene has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • The Marlins have scored 387 runs this season, which ranks 24th in MLB. They have 762 hits, 21st in baseball, with 92 home runs (20th in the league).

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 45 times this season and won 27, or 60%, of those games.
  • Miami has entered 42 games this season favored by -112 or more and is 26-16 in those contests.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 52.8% chance to win.
  • Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 47 of their 96 games with a total this season.
  • The Marlins are 44-52-0 against the spread in their 96 chances this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have been underdogs in 76 games this season and have come away with the win 30 times (39.5%) in those contests.
  • Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 30-45 when favored by -106 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 51.5% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 52 of their 97 opportunities.
  • In 97 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 46-51-0 against the spread.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Miguel Rojas is hitting .238 with 13 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 17 walks.
  • Rojas is 184th in home runs and 223rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
  • Rojas brings a hitting streak of four games into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .263 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.
  • Garrett Cooper has a club-high .279 batting average.
  • Cooper is 160th in homers and 81st in RBI in the majors.
  • Jesus Aguilar is hitting .245 with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 21 walks.
  • Jesus Sanchez has 10 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 23 walks while batting .202.
Miguel Rojas 87 .238 .285 .350 6 23 70
Garrett Cooper 84 .279 .347 .426 7 40 83
Jesús Aguilar 88 .245 .292 .385 11 38 82
Jesús Sánchez 85 .202 .267 .379 11 31 56
Joey Wendle 48 .290 .339 .400 2 18 45

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Brandon Drury leads the Reds with 19 home runs and 57 runs batted in, while posting a team-best batting average of .271.
  • Among all hitters in the majors, Drury’s home run total is 20th and his RBI tally ranks 21st.
  • Drury has collected a hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .200 with a double, a home run, two walks and six RBI.
  • Kyle Farmer is batting .261 with 19 doubles, six home runs and 23 walks.
  • Farmer is 184th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and 51st in RBI.
  • Tommy Pham is hitting .239 with 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 40 walks.
  • Joey Votto is hitting .215 with 17 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 35 walks.
Brandon Drury 85 .271 .331 .520 19 57 88
Kyle Farmer 81 .261 .334 .390 6 47 75
Tommy Pham 85 .239 .322 .381 11 37 76
Joey Votto 71 .215 .325 .386 8 34 54
Tyler Naquin 54 .249 .310 .436 6 31 45

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