Mets vs. Astros Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/28/2022

by | Jun 27, 2022

The New York Mets (47-27) host the Houston Astros (45-27) at 7:10 PM ET Tuesday for a sluggers’ duel between two of the best power hitters in MLB. For the favored Mets (-120), Pete Alonso has racked up 22 homers this season, second in the league, while Yordan Alvarez ranks second in the majors with 22 dingers of his own this season for the underdogs. New York’s Carlos Carrasco and Houston’s Luis Garcia have been named the starters for this contest.

Mets vs. Astros Spread and Betting Line

Mets vs Astros Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Mets -120 +100 8.5 -105 -115 -1.5 +165 -195

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Astros

After looking at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Astros on the moneyline at +100. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Houston Astros (+100) and Over (8.5)

Mets vs. Astros Game Info

  • New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Houston Astros probable starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
  • Game Day: Tuesday, June 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: Queens, New York
  • Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Pitching Matchup

Carrasco Garcia
14 GS 13
8-3 W-L 5-5
4.42 ERA 3.55
77.1 IP 71.0
18 BB 19
77 SO 74

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

  • Carrasco (8-3 with a 4.42 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Mets, his 15th of the season.
  • In his last time out on Wednesday against the Houston Astros, the righty went 2 1/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • In 14 games this season, the 35-year-old has an ERA of 4.42, with 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .269 against him.
  • Carrasco is looking to pick up his sixth quality start of the year.
  • Carrasco is looking to record his 11th start of five or more innings this season in this matchup.
  • The opposing Astros offense has the sixth-ranked slugging percentage (.417) and ranks third in MLB play with 99 home runs. It has a collective .237 batting average, and is 24th in MLB with 565 total hits and 18th in MLB play scoring 309 runs.
  • Carrasco has a 19.29 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP against the Astros this season in 2 1/3 innings pitched, allowing a .364 batting average over one appearance.
  • The 35-year-old ranks 52nd in ERA (4.42), 46th in WHIP (1.293), and 20th in K/9 (9.0) among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season.

Astros Starter Luis Garcia

  • The Astros will hand the ball to Garcia (5-5) for his 14th start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed six hits in five innings pitched against the New York Mets on Wednesday.
  • The 25-year-old has an ERA of 3.55 and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .211 in 13 games this season.
  • In 13 starts this season, he’s earned five quality starts.
  • Garcia has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Mets have scored 365 runs this season, which ranks second in MLB. They have 646 hits, fourth in baseball, with 71 home runs (18th in the league).
  • The Mets have gone 6-for-19 with two doubles and three RBI in one game against the right-hander this season.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Mets have won 37 out of the 54 games, or 68.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • New York has entered 50 games this season favored by -120 or more and is 34-16 in those contests.
  • The Mets have a 54.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, New York and its opponents have hit the over in 39 of their 76 games with a total.
  • The Mets are 43-31-0 against the spread this season.

Astros Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Astros have come away with six wins in the 14 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Houston has been victorious six times in 13 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Astros have an implied victory probability of 50% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Contests with Houston have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 23 of 72 chances this season.
  • In 72 games with a line this season, the Astros have a mark of 36-36-0 against the spread.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Alonso is the Mets best power hitter, launching 22 round-trippers this season in addition to accumulating 69 RBI, both team highs.
  • Alonso is second in home runs and first in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Alonso takes a hitting streak of two games into this game. In his last five games he is batting .353 with a double, three home runs, two walks and five RBI.
  • Francisco Lindor is batting .246 with 11 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks.
  • Including all major league hitters, Lindor is 41st in homers and fourth in RBI.
  • Starling Marte is hitting .272 with 14 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 13 walks.
  • Marte is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last five games he is hitting .211 with two doubles, a walk and an RBI.
  • Jeff McNeil has a club-high .327 batting average.
  • McNeil takes an eight-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last 10 outings he is batting .406 with three doubles, a home run, four walks and five RBI.
Pete Alonso 73 .281 .360 .567 22 69 76
Francisco Lindor 73 .246 .322 .426 12 56 70
Starling Marte 63 .272 .322 .432 7 36 70
Jeff McNeil 65 .327 .386 .465 4 33 74
Brandon Nimmo 66 .278 .366 .431 5 24 69

Astros Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Alvarez paces the Astros in home runs (22), runs batted in (54) and has put up a team-high batting average of .312.
  • Alvarez’s home run total puts him second in MLB, and he ranks sixth in RBI.
  • Kyle Tucker is batting .254 with 11 doubles, 14 home runs and 35 walks.
  • Tucker is 25th in homers and 12th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
  • Alex Bregman is hitting .234 with 15 doubles, nine home runs and 44 walks.
  • Jose Altuve has 13 doubles, 15 home runs and 25 walks while hitting .275.
Yordan Alvarez 65 .312 .404 .649 22 54 72
Kyle Tucker 67 .254 .349 .479 14 48 60
Alex Bregman 70 .234 .358 .406 9 35 57
Jose Altuve 57 .275 .359 .536 15 26 61
Michael Brantley 64 .284 .366 .412 5 26 69

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