Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/14/2022

by | Jul 14, 2022

Entering Thursday’s matchup with the New York Mets (55-34), the Chicago Cubs (34-54) are on a six-game losing streak. The contest starts at 8:05 PM ET with the Mets listed as -140 favorites, while the are +119 underdogs who may be heading for a seventh straight defeat. Carlos Carrasco starts for New York while Keegan Thompson is Chicago’s starter for the contest.

Mets vs. Cubs Spread and Betting Line

Mets vs Cubs Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Mets -140 +119 8 +100 -120 -1.5 +120 -140

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Cubs

Our best bet is the Cubs on the moneyline at +119 after analyzing all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will over the total of 8 runs.

Our computer pick: Chicago Cubs (+119) and Over (8)

Mets vs. Cubs Game Info

  • New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Chicago Cubs probable starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson
  • Game Day: Thursday, July 14, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:05 PM ET
  • Location: Chicago, Illinois
  • Stadium: Wrigley Field

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Pitching Matchup

Carrasco Thompson
17 GS 11
9-4 W-L 7-3
4.55 ERA 3.16
93.0 IP 77.0
24 BB 25
94 SO 74

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

  • Carrasco will look to grab his 10th win when he makes the start for the Mets, his 18th of the season. He is 9-4 with a 4.55 ERA and 94 strikeouts through 93 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Saturday, the right-hander went 5 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins, giving up two earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • The 35-year-old has a 4.55 ERA and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 17 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .277 to his opponents.
  • Carrasco has five quality starts this year.
  • Carrasco will try to extend a three-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.1 innings per appearance).
  • He will take the mound against a Cubs team that is batting .244 as a unit (13th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .396 (15th in MLB) with 88 total home runs (19th in MLB).
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 35-year-old’s 4.55 ERA ranks 56th, 1.344 WHIP ranks 50th, and 9.1 K/9 ranks 20th.

Cubs Starter Keegan Thompson

  • The Cubs’ Thompson (7-3) will make his 12th start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up no earned runs and allowed two hits in 5 2/3 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.16, a 2.96 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.182 in 19 games this season.
  • He has earned a quality start two times in 11 starts this season.
  • Thompson has made seven starts of five or more innings in 11 chances this season, and averages 4.0 frames when he pitches.
  • The Mets rank fourth in MLB with 421 runs scored this season. They have a .253 batting average this campaign with 89 home runs (17th in the league).

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Mets have been favored 64 times and won 43, or 67.2%, of those games.
  • New York has a record of 27-10, a 73% win rate, when favored by -140 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 58.3% chance of a victory for the Mets.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 46 of their 91 chances.
  • The Mets are 49-40-0 against the spread this season.

Cubs Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Cubs have been chosen as underdogs in 61 games this year and have walked away with the win 24 times (39.3%) in those games.
  • Chicago has a mark of 16-23 in contests where bookmakers favor them by +119 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Cubs have a 45.7% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Contests with Chicago have gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 42 of 88 chances this season.
  • The Cubs have an against the spread mark of 43-45-0 in 88 games with a line this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Pete Alonso paces the Mets in home runs (23) and runs batted in (72).
  • In all of Major League Baseball, Alonso ranks sixth in homers and first in RBI.
  • Francisco Lindor is batting .244 with 11 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 32 walks.
  • Lindor ranks 31st in home runs and seventh in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
  • Lindor enters this game looking for his eighth game in a row with a hit. In his last 10 outings he is batting .244 with a triple, four home runs and eight RBI.
  • Starling Marte is hitting .288 with 18 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 16 walks.
  • Brandon Nimmo has 16 doubles, five triples, eight home runs and 34 walks while hitting .269.
Pete Alonso 88 .268 .343 .521 23 72 88
Francisco Lindor 88 .244 .317 .433 16 64 84
Starling Marte 74 .288 .339 .458 9 40 86
Brandon Nimmo 81 .269 .355 .430 8 32 83
Mark Canha 74 .273 .371 .383 7 31 69

Cubs Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Ian Happ is batting .280 with 23 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 42 walks.
  • Among all hitters in the big leagues, Happ’s home run total is 101st and his RBI tally ranks 62nd.
  • Happ has collected a hit in three straight games. In his last five games he is batting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBI.
  • Willson Contreras is hitting .262 with 17 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 35 walks.
  • Contreras ranks 48th in home runs and 104th in RBI among all major league batters this year.
  • Nico Hoerner has a team-best batting average of .304.
  • Patrick Wisdom has put up a team-leading 17 home runs and has driven in 45 runs.
Ian Happ 86 .280 .373 .457 9 41 85
Willson Contreras 75 .262 .377 .473 13 35 72
Nico Hoerner 73 .304 .338 .427 5 26 79
Patrick Wisdom 84 .227 .321 .453 17 45 68
Christopher Morel 51 .267 .336 .490 9 25 54

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