Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 6/26/2022

The New York Mets (47-26) and Pete Alonso (2 HR in his last game) are favored (-151) on the moneyline for their matchup with the Miami Marlins (32-38) on Sunday at 12:05 PM ET. David Peterson will get the ball for New York while Miami counter with Daniel Castano.

Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins

Our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +129 after digging through all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+129) and Over (8.5)

Mets vs. Marlins Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: David Peterson
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Daniel Castano
• Game Day: Sunday, June 26, 2022
• Game Time: 12:05 PM ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Stadium: loanDepot park

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter David Peterson

• The Mets will send Peterson (4-1) out for his ninth start of the season. He is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 45 1/3 innings pitched.
• His last appearance was on Monday against the Miami Marlins, when the left-hander threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings while giving up six hits.
• In 10 games this season, the 26-year-old has amassed a 3.18 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .235 to his opponents.
• Peterson has one quality start under his belt this season.
• Peterson has put together four starts this year in which he pitched five or more innings.
• He will take the mound against a Marlins team that is batting .244 as a unit (13th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .397 (15th in MLB) with 78 total home runs (13th in MLB).
• Peterson has pitched 5 1/3 innings without giving up an earned run on six hits, while striking out seven against the Marlins this season.

Marlins Starter Daniel Castano

• Castano will take to the mound for the Marlins, his third start of the season.
• The left-hander last pitched on Tuesday, when he threw 3 1/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies, giving up four earned runs.
• He has pitched to a 2.57 ERA this season with 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 3.2 walks per nine across five games.
• He has started two games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in one of them.
• Castano has made one start of five or more innings in two chances this season, and averages 2.2 frames when he pitches.
• The Mets rank second in MLB with a .260 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 10th in the league (.402) and 70 home runs.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Mets have won 37 out of the 53 games, or 69.8%, in which they’ve been favored.
• New York has a record of 19-5 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -151 on the moneyline.
• The Mets have a 60.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Games involving New York have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 39 of 75 chances this season.
• The Mets are 43-30-0 ATS in their 73 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been underdogs in 39 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (33.3%) in those contests.
• This year, Miami has won three of 14 games when listed as at least +129 or worse on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 43.7% chance of pulling out a win.
• Miami and their opponents have hit the over in 37 of their 70 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
• The Marlins are 35-35-0 against the spread in their 70 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Alonso leads the Mets in home runs (22) and runs batted in (68).
• Among all hitters in the majors, Alonso is second in home runs and first in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .249 with 11 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 27 walks.
• Lindor is 39th in homers and fourth in RBI on the season.
• Lindor has three games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .318 with two doubles, a home run and four RBI.
• Jeff McNeil leads the Mets with a .327 batting average.
• McNeil has at least one base hit in eight games in a row. During his last 10 outings he is batting .406 with three doubles, a home run, four walks and five RBI.
• Starling Marte is hitting .272 with 13 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 12 walks.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Jazz Chisholm has put up a team-leading 14 home runs and has driven in 45 runs.
• In all of the big leagues, Chisholm ranks 24th in home runs and 18th in RBI.
• Chisholm carries a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .400 with two doubles, a home run, two walks and three RBI.
• Garrett Cooper is batting .311 to lead the lineup.
• Cooper is currently 163rd in homers and 61st in RBI in the major leagues.
• Jorge Soler has 13 doubles, 13 home runs and 29 walks while batting .219.
• Jesus Aguilar is batting .252 with 12 doubles, nine home runs and 18 walks.