Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/10/2022

The Miami Marlins (40-43) are +107 moneyline underdogs Sunday despite their plans to send Sandy Alcantara to the mound to face the New York Mets (53-32). Alcantara will be seeking win No. 10 win against the odds, with first pitch slated for 1:40 PM ET. Taijuan Walker starts for New York while Alcantara is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins

Our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +107 after analyzing all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 7 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+107) and Over (7)

Mets vs. Marlins Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
• Game Day: Sunday, July 10, 2022
• Game Time: 1:40 PM ET
• Location: Queens, New York
• Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Taijuan Walker

• Walker gets the start for the Mets, his 15th of the season. He is 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings pitched.
• The right-hander’s last time out was on Monday against the Cincinnati Reds, when he threw 6 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing four hits.
• In 14 games this season, the 29-year-old has put up a 2.86 ERA and 7 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .232 to his opponents.
• Walker is looking to build upon a fifth-game quality start streak in this game.
• Walker will aim to pitch five or more innings for his 12th straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.2 frames per outing.
• He meets a Marlins offense that ranks 18th in the league with 357 runs while batting .241 as a squad. It has a collective .393 slugging percentage (15th in MLB play) and has hit a total of 90 home runs (14th in MLB).
• In 12 2/3 innings over two appearances against the Marlins this season, Walker has a 2.84 ERA and a 1.026 WHIP while his opponents are hitting .217.

Marlins Starter Sandy Alcantara

• Alcantara (9-3) will take the mound for the Marlins, his 18th start of the season.
• The right-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, when he threw 8 2/3 scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels while allowing two hits.
• The 26-year-old has pitched in 17 games this season with an ERA of 1.82, a 3.567 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of .908.
• He’s going for his third quality start in a row.
• Alcantara will look to pitch five or more innings for the 12th start in a row.
• The Mets rank fourth in MLB with a .255 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 10th in the league (.402) and 85 home runs.
• The Mets have gone 12-for-56 with three doubles, a triple, two home runs and six RBI in two games against the right-hander this season.
• Among qualified pitchers in the majors this year, the 26-year-old ranks third in ERA (1.82), fifth in WHIP (.908), and 39th in K/9 (7.8).

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• The Mets have won 43, or 68.3%, of the 63 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• New York has a record of 32-18 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -127 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 55.9%.
• New York’s games have gone over the total in 45 of their 87 chances.
• The Mets are 47-38-0 ATS in their 85 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been underdogs in 48 games this season and have come away with the win 17 times (35.4%) in those contests.
• This year, Miami has won 10 of 33 games when listed as at least +107 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 48.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
• Miami’s games have gone over the total in 41 of their 83 opportunities.
• The Marlins are 42-41-0 against the spread in their 83 games that had a posted line this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 23 home runs and 70 runs batted in.
• Alonso ranks fifth in homers and first in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Francisco Lindor is batting .240 with 11 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 32 walks.
• Lindor is 30th in home runs in the majors, and sixth in RBI.
• Lindor carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .136 with two home runs and three RBI.
• Starling Marte has 18 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 16 walks while batting .288.
• Brandon Nimmo is hitting .273 with 15 doubles, five triples, eight home runs and 31 walks.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Garrett Cooper leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .303.
• In all of the big leagues, Cooper ranks 139th in homers and 60th in RBI.
• Jesus Aguilar is hitting .250 with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 19 walks.
• Aguilar is currently 63rd in homers and 92nd in RBI in the major leagues.
• Miguel Rojas is batting .249 with 11 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
• Jon Berti has 10 doubles, two triples, two home runs and 24 walks while hitting .267.