Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/7/2022

by | Jul 7, 2022

After a four-hit game in a win over the Reds, Pete Alonso leads the New York Mets (51-31) as -167 favorites against the Miami Marlins (39-41). Action gets underway from Citi Field at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday. New York’s Trevor Williams gets the start, and he’ll go against Miami’s Daniel Castano.

Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Mets vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Mets -167 +142 9 -117 -103 -1.5 +116 -139

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins

Our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +142 after looking at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will under the total of 9 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+142) and Under (9)

Mets vs. Marlins Game Info

  • New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Daniel Castano
  • Game Day: Thursday, July 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: Queens, New York
  • Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Williams Castano
7 GS 4
1-5 W-L 1-1
4.34 ERA 2.42
45.2 IP 26.0
14 BB 9
42 SO 15

Mets Starter Trevor Williams

  • Williams gets the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season. He is 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 42 strikeouts through 45 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Saturday against the Texas Rangers, when he went 3 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • The 30-year-old has put together a 4.34 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 15 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .256 to his opponents.
  • So far this year, Williams has not recorded a quality start.
  • Williams heads into the matchup with two outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
  • He will face a Marlins offense that ranks 17th in the league with 348 runs while batting .242 as a squad. It has a collective .394 slugging percentage (15th in MLB play) and has hit a total of 88 home runs (14th in MLB).

Marlins Starter Daniel Castano

  • Castano (1-1) will take the mound for the Marlins, his fifth start of the season.
  • The left-hander gave up one earned run and allowed four hits in 5 2/3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals on Saturday.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 2.42 and 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .260 in seven games this season.
  • In four starts this season, he’s earned two quality starts.
  • Castano will look to pitch five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • The Mets have scored 392 runs this season, which ranks fifth in MLB. They have 712 hits, seventh in baseball, with 79 home runs (19th in the league).
  • The Mets have gone 5-for-26 with four doubles, a home run and two RBI in one game against the left-hander this season.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Mets have won 41, or 68.3%, of the 60 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • New York is 14-3 this season when entering a game favored by -167 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 62.5%.
  • New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 43 of their 84 opportunities.
  • The Mets are 46-36-0 ATS in their 82 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have won in 16, or 35.6%, of the 45 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • Miami has a win-loss record of 1-6 when favored by +142 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 41.3% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 39 of their 80 opportunities.
  • The Marlins are 40-40-0 against the spread in their 80 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Alonso has put up a team-best 22 home runs and 69 runs batted in.
  • Alonso ranks fifth in home runs and first in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
  • Francisco Lindor is hitting .240 with 11 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 32 walks.
  • Including all MLB hitters, Lindor is 41st in home runs and eighth in RBI.
  • Starling Marte is hitting .285 with 17 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 16 walks.
  • Marte is on a six-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last 10 games he is batting .385 with four doubles, two home runs, four walks and four RBI.
  • Brandon Nimmo is batting .278 with 14 doubles, five triples, seven home runs and 29 walks.
  • Nimmo takes a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .318 with two home runs, a walk and six RBI.
Pete Alonso 81 .281 .358 .545 22 69 84
Francisco Lindor 81 .240 .320 .413 13 57 75
Starling Marte 71 .285 .338 .458 9 40 82
Brandon Nimmo 74 .278 .360 .438 7 30 78
Jeff McNeil 73 .316 .374 .443 4 35 80

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Garrett Cooper paces the Marlins with a .311 batting average.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Cooper’s home run total is 161st and his RBI tally ranks 64th.
  • Miguel Rojas is batting .247 with 10 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
  • Among all major league hitters, Rojas ranks 161st in home runs and 201st in RBI.
  • Jesus Aguilar has 13 doubles, 10 home runs and 19 walks while hitting .242.
  • Jon Berti is batting .263 with eight doubles, two triples, two home runs and 24 walks.
Garrett Cooper 71 .311 .377 .467 6 38 80
Miguel Rojas 71 .247 .300 .372 6 21 59
Jesús Aguilar 72 .242 .289 .397 10 34 67
Jon Berti 50 .263 .361 .371 2 18 44
Jesús Sánchez 69 .218 .271 .418 11 31 52

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