After a four-hit game in a win over the Reds, Pete Alonso leads the New York Mets (51-31) as -167 favorites against the Miami Marlins (39-41). Action gets underway from Citi Field at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday. New York’s Trevor Williams gets the start, and he’ll go against Miami’s Daniel Castano.
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Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line
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Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins
Our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +142 after looking at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will under the total of 9 runs.
Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+142) and Under (9)
Mets vs. Marlins Game Info
- New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Daniel Castano
- Game Day: Thursday, July 7, 2022
- Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Location: Queens, New York
- Stadium: Citi Field
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup
Mets Starter Trevor Williams
- Williams gets the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season. He is 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 42 strikeouts through 45 2/3 innings pitched.
- The right-hander last pitched on Saturday against the Texas Rangers, when he went 3 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs while giving up five hits.
- The 30-year-old has put together a 4.34 ERA and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 15 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .256 to his opponents.
- So far this year, Williams has not recorded a quality start.
- Williams heads into the matchup with two outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
- He will face a Marlins offense that ranks 17th in the league with 348 runs while batting .242 as a squad. It has a collective .394 slugging percentage (15th in MLB play) and has hit a total of 88 home runs (14th in MLB).
Marlins Starter Daniel Castano
- Castano (1-1) will take the mound for the Marlins, his fifth start of the season.
- The left-hander gave up one earned run and allowed four hits in 5 2/3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals on Saturday.
- The 27-year-old has an ERA of 2.42 and 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .260 in seven games this season.
- In four starts this season, he’s earned two quality starts.
- Castano will look to pitch five or more innings for the third start in a row.
- The Mets have scored 392 runs this season, which ranks fifth in MLB. They have 712 hits, seventh in baseball, with 79 home runs (19th in the league).
- The Mets have gone 5-for-26 with four doubles, a home run and two RBI in one game against the left-hander this season.
Mets Betting Picks & Insights
- The Mets have won 41, or 68.3%, of the 60 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- New York is 14-3 this season when entering a game favored by -167 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 62.5%.
- New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 43 of their 84 opportunities.
- The Mets are 46-36-0 ATS in their 82 games with a spread this season.
Marlins Betting Picks & Insights
- The Marlins have won in 16, or 35.6%, of the 45 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
- Miami has a win-loss record of 1-6 when favored by +142 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 41.3% chance of pulling out a win.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 39 of their 80 opportunities.
- The Marlins are 40-40-0 against the spread in their 80 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Mets Leaders & Batting Stats
- Alonso has put up a team-best 22 home runs and 69 runs batted in.
- Alonso ranks fifth in home runs and first in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
- Francisco Lindor is hitting .240 with 11 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 32 walks.
- Including all MLB hitters, Lindor is 41st in home runs and eighth in RBI.
- Starling Marte is hitting .285 with 17 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 16 walks.
- Marte is on a six-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last 10 games he is batting .385 with four doubles, two home runs, four walks and four RBI.
- Brandon Nimmo is batting .278 with 14 doubles, five triples, seven home runs and 29 walks.
- Nimmo takes a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .318 with two home runs, a walk and six RBI.
Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats
- Garrett Cooper paces the Marlins with a .311 batting average.
- Among all hitters in MLB, Cooper’s home run total is 161st and his RBI tally ranks 64th.
- Miguel Rojas is batting .247 with 10 doubles, a triple, six home runs and 16 walks.
- Among all major league hitters, Rojas ranks 161st in home runs and 201st in RBI.
- Jesus Aguilar has 13 doubles, 10 home runs and 19 walks while hitting .242.
- Jon Berti is batting .263 with eight doubles, two triples, two home runs and 24 walks.
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