Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/10/2022

The New York Mets (87-52) are set to take on the Miami Marlins (57-80) Saturday at 6:10 PM ET. The Mets are listed as -157 favorites by sportsbooks, while the underdog Marlins have +133 odds for the contest. Carlos Carrasco starts for New York while Pablo Lopez is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Mets vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +133 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after taking a look at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+133) and Over (7.5)

Mets vs. Marlins Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
• Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Pablo López
• Game Day: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Game Time: 6:10 PM ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Stadium: loanDepot park

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

• Carrasco gets the start for the Mets, his 25th of the season. He is 13-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 129 innings pitched.
• His last appearance came on Sunday against the Washington Nationals, when the righty went 2 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing six hits.
• The 35-year-old has an ERA of 3.91, with 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings, in 24 games this season. Opponents are hitting .273 against him.
• Carrasco is looking to collect his 10th quality start of the year.
• Carrasco is looking to pick up his 18th start of five or more innings this year in this outing.
• The opposing Marlins offense has a collective .229 batting average, and is 26th in the league with 1045 total hits and 27th in MLB play with 488 runs scored. It has the 27th-ranked slugging percentage (.362) and ranks 25th in home runs (121) in all of MLB.
• Carrasco has a 2.29 ERA and a 1.271 WHIP against the Marlins this season in 19 2/3 innings pitched, allowing a .260 batting average over three appearances.

Marlins Starter Pablo López

• The Marlins will send Lopez (8-9) to the mound for his 28th start this season.
• The right-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in four innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday.
• The 26-year-old has pitched to a 3.66 ERA this season with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.8 walks per nine across 27 games.
• He has 10 quality starts in 27 chances this season.
• Lopez has 21 starts of five or more innings this season in 27 chances. He averages 5.2 innings per outing.
• The Mets are batting .257 this season, sixth in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .407 (10th in the league) with 139 home runs.
• This season, the right-hander has pitched against the Mets in three games, and they have gone 24-for-62 with six doubles, a triple, two home runs and 13 RBI over 13 innings.
• The 26-year-old ranks 33rd in ERA (3.66), 30th in WHIP (1.180), and 16th in K/9 (8.9) among qualified pitchers in the majors this year.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• The Mets have entered the game as favorites 105 times this season and won 70, or 66.7%, of those games.
• New York has entered 52 games this season favored by -157 or more and is 36-16 in those contests.
• The Mets have a 61.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• New York’s games have gone over the total in 70 of their 141 chances.
• The Mets are 76-63-0 against the spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

• The Marlins have been underdogs in 84 games this season and have come away with the win 26 times (31%) in those contests.
• This year, Miami has won seven of 36 games when listed as at least +133 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 42.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
• Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 60 of their 137 opportunities.
• The Marlins have an against the spread mark of 64-73-0 in 137 games with a line this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso has gone yard 33 times in the 2022 campaign while driving in 108 runs, both totals that lead the Mets.
• Alonso is fifth in homers and third in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Alonso has collected a hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with a double, a home run, two walks and two RBI.
• Francisco Lindor has 20 doubles, four triples, 21 home runs and 56 walks while batting .265.
• Lindor ranks 41st in homers and ninth in RBI in the bigs.
• Lindor heads into this game looking for his third game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .211 with two doubles, two walks and three RBI.
• Starling Marte is hitting .292 with 24 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs and 26 walks.
• Brandon Nimmo has 27 doubles, six triples, 13 home runs and 55 walks while batting .266.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

• Miguel Rojas leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .232.
• Among all hitters in the big leagues, Rojas’ home run total ranks 238th and his RBI tally is 224th.
• Garrett Cooper has driven in the most runs for the Marlins with 45 runs batted in.
• Cooper is 191st in homers and 139th in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Jon Berti is batting .253 with 14 doubles, two triples, three home runs and 34 walks.
• Joey Wendle is hitting .252 with 20 doubles, a triple, three home runs and 14 walks.