Mets vs. Pirates Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 9/16/2022

by | Sep 16, 2022

The New York Mets (90-55), led by Tomas Nido on a two-game home run streak, are -264 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates (55-89). First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET Friday, live from Citi Field. Taijuan Walker gets the starting nod for New York while Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Mets vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Mets vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Mets -264 +215 7.5 -120 -101 -1.5 -119 -102

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Pirates

Our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +215 after digging through all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer predicts the total score will over the total of 7.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+215) and Over (7.5)

Mets vs. Pirates Game Info

  • New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
  • Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Game Day: Friday, September 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
  • Location: Queens, New York
  • Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Walker Keller
25 GS 25
11-4 W-L 5-10
3.48 ERA 4.01
134.2 IP 137.0
40 BB 51
106 SO 115

Mets Starter Taijuan Walker

  • Walker makes the start for the Mets, his 26th of the season. He is 11-4 with a 3.48 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 134 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Sunday against the Miami Marlins, the righty went seven innings, allowing one earned run while surrendering five hits.
  • The 30-year-old has put up an ERA of 3.48, with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings, in 25 games this season. Opponents are batting .241 against him.
  • Walker heads into this game with 12 quality starts under his belt this year.
  • Walker is seeking his fifth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 frames per appearance on the mound.
  • The opposing Pirates offense has the 27th-ranked slugging percentage (.365) and is 17th in MLB play with 145 home runs. It has a collective .222 batting average, and is 29th in MLB with 1053 total hits and 27th in MLB action scoring 516 runs.
  • Walker has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.600 WHIP against the Pirates this season in five innings pitched, allowing a .316 batting average over one appearance.

Pirates Starter Mitch Keller

  • The Pirates will hand the ball to Keller (5-10) for his 26th start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed seven innings without allowing a run on two hits in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 4.01, a 2.255 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.409 in 27 games this season.
  • He’s looking to extend his three-game quality start streak.
  • Keller has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Mets are batting .258 this season, fifth in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .410 (eighth in the league) with 150 home runs.
  • The Mets have gone 5-for-20 in six innings this season against the right-hander.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Mets have entered the game as favorites 111 times this season and won 73, or 65.8%, of those games.
  • New York is 11-6 this season when entering a game favored by -264 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 72.5%.
  • New York and its opponents have hit the over in 74 of their 147 games with a total this season.
  • The Mets are 79-66-0 against the spread in their 145 chances this season.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Pirates have been chosen as underdogs in 126 games this year and have walked away with the win 46 times (36.5%) in those games.
  • This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious six times in 18 chances when named as an underdog of at least +215 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 31.7% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Pittsburgh and their opponents have gone over in 65 of their 145 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Pirates have an against the spread record of 73-72-0 in 145 games with a line this season.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Pete Alonso leads the Mets in home runs (35) and runs batted in (112).
  • Among all MLB hitters, Alonso ranks 42nd in batting average, 37th in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging.
  • Alonso carries a nine-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 outings he is batting .325 with a double, three home runs, three walks and six RBI.
  • Francisco Lindor is hitting .267 with 21 doubles, four triples, 24 home runs and 58 walks.
  • Lindor ranks 33rd in homers and ninth in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
  • Lindor has two straight games with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .250 with two home runs, two walks and three RBI.
  • Brandon Nimmo is batting .261 with 28 doubles, six triples, 14 home runs and 63 walks.
  • Jeff McNeil’s .322 batting average leads his team.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Pete Alonso 144 .270 .347 .509 35 112 146
Francisco Lindor 144 .267 .343 .448 24 94 149
Brandon Nimmo 136 .261 .355 .417 14 53 137
Jeff McNeil 131 .322 .374 .450 7 57 151
Mark Canha 123 .270 .368 .413 12 56 109

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Bryan Reynolds paces the Pirates with 23 home runs and 54 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .259.
  • In all of the big leagues, Reynolds ranks 39th in home runs and 100th in RBI.
  • Reynolds has collected a hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .381 with two home runs, two walks and three RBI.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes is hitting .248 with 22 doubles, three triples, seven home runs and 44 walks.
  • Hayes ranks 226th overall in homers and 195th in RBI this year.
  • Ben Gamel is batting .235 with 19 doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 39 walks.
  • Michael Chavis is hitting .240 with 16 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs and 18 walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Bryan Reynolds 128 .259 .338 .452 23 54 124
Ke’Bryan Hayes 121 .248 .317 .355 7 38 113
Ben Gamel 103 .235 .318 .372 8 42 80
Michael Chavis 122 .240 .275 .409 14 48 91
Oneil Cruz 71 .220 .268 .451 15 46 59

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