Mets vs. Rangers Prediction, Computer Picks, Odds & Pitching Matchup 7/3/2022

The Texas Rangers (37-39) and Kole Calhoun (2 HR in his last game) are underdogs (+120) on the moneyline for their matchup with the New York Mets (48-30) on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET. New York’s Carlos Carrasco gets the start, and he’ll go against Texas’ Jon Gray.

Mets vs. Rangers Spread and Betting Line

Computer Predictions for Mets vs. Rangers

We have the Rangers on the moneyline at +120 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 8.5 runs.

Our computer pick: Texas Rangers (+120) and Over (8.5)

Mets vs. Rangers Game Info

• New York Mets probable starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
• Texas Rangers probable starting pitcher: Jon Gray
• Game Day: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Game Time: 1:40 PM ET
• Location: Queens, New York
• Stadium: Citi Field

New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Pitching Matchup

Mets Starter Carlos Carrasco

• Carrasco (8-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Mets, his 16th of the season.
• In his last outing on Tuesday against the Houston Astros, the right-hander tossed 4 1/3 innings, giving up six earned runs while surrendering six hits.
• In 15 games this season, the 35-year-old has an ERA of 4.85, with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .273 against him.
• Carrasco enters this matchup with five quality starts under his belt this year.
• Carrasco has put up 10 starts this season in which he pitched five or more innings.
• He will face a Rangers offense that ranks 16th in the league with 335 runs while batting .238 as a unit. It has a collective .396 slugging percentage (16th in MLB play) and has hit a total of 99 home runs (seventh in MLB).
• Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 35-year-old’s 4.85 ERA ranks 58th, 1.335 WHIP ranks 52nd, and 8.9 K/9 ranks 23rd.

Rangers Starter Jon Gray

• Gray (4-3) will take the mound for the Rangers, his 14th start of the season.
• The right-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw 7 2/3 innings against the Kansas City Royals, giving up one earned run while allowing five hits.
• The 30-year-old has pitched in 13 games this season with an ERA of 3.89, a 3.04 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.158.
• He has started 13 games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in five of them.
• Gray has nine starts in a row of five innings or more.
• The Mets are batting .256 this season, fourth in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .397 (14th in the league) with 74 home runs.

Mets Betting Picks & Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 56 times and won 38, or 67.9%, of those games.
• New York is 23-8 this season when entering a game favored by -141 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 58.5% chance of a victory for the Mets.
• New York’s games have gone over the total in 41 of their 80 chances.
• In 78 games with a spread this season, the Mets are 43-35-0 ATS.

Rangers Betting Picks & Insights

• The Rangers have been underdogs in 51 games this season and have come away with the win 26 times (51%) in those contests.
• Texas has a mark of 15-14 in contests where sportsbooks favor them by +120 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Rangers have a 45.5% chance of walking away with the win.
• Texas’ games have gone over the total in 33 of their 77 opportunities.
• In 77 games with a line this season, the Rangers have a mark of 45-32-0 against the spread.

Mets Leaders & Batting Stats

• Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 22 home runs and 69 runs batted in.
• Among all MLB hitters, Alonso ranks 35th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .247 with 11 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 32 walks.
• Of all MLB batters, Lindor is 48th in home runs and sixth in RBI.
• Lindor has two straight games with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .214 with five walks.
• Starling Marte is hitting .278 with 16 doubles, three triples, eight home runs and 13 walks.
• Marte has at least one base hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .368 with three doubles, a home run, a walk and two RBI.
• Jeff McNeil’s .318 batting average leads his team.

Rangers Leaders & Batting Stats

• Adolis Garcia has posted a team-high 15 home runs and has driven in 50 runs.
• Garcia’s home run total puts him 27th in MLB, and he ranks 17th in RBI.
• Corey Seager’s 15 home runs are a team-high total.
• Seager is 27th among all hitters in the majors in homers, and 67th in RBI.
• Marcus Semien is batting .231 with 13 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 25 walks.
• Nate Lowe paces the Rangers with a team-leading batting average of .274.