Two nights ago we made clients some who bet $56,500 on the Phoenix Suns to beat the Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 points in game 1. Now you have the chance to make even more money with a guaranteed winner for game 2. Below is courtesy of The Rundown and Doug for tonights game tipping off in 2.5 hours from now.
NBA Finals – Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns – 9:10 p.m. ET
There’s been a high-scoring trend for these teams’ series openers: The over went a combined 3-1 in the last four Game 1s played by Milwaukee and Phoenix. Game 2s over that stretch? 0-4. It’s just one reason we believe the defense steps up and forces an under tonight.
When Giannis Antetokounmpo played the Finals opener, it marked the first time the over cashed with him in the lineup since Game 1 of the Atlanta series. That’s because the Greek Freak is a key piece on defense, with his 101.8 playoff defensive rating ranking tops for any player with at least 31 minutes per game.
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Giannis’ surprise return in Game 1 prompted the over to hit, but still only by 3.5 points. And, oh yeah, there’s a DraftKings profit boost on the over. You know what to do.
Pick: Under 220.5 (-105)
DFS Value Play: P.J. Tucker ($6900)
For those looking for additional betting picks and parlays for the rest of the week read below.
Wimbledon – Djokovic vs. Shapovalov – Friday, 10:30 a.m. ET
Novak Djokovic is a hilariously huge moneyline favorite for this match (-1200*), so the question isn’t whether he’ll advance to his seventh Wimbledon final, but by how big of a margin. It’s not impossible that Denis Shapovalov gets a set off the all-time great, so we think there’s more value regardless in Joker’s game spread.
Let’s start with the immediate context. Shapovalov is coming off his second five-set match of the Championships after his win over Karen Khachanov in the quarters. Djokovic, meanwhile, has dropped one set the entire tournament. Rest advantage goes to Joker.
Djokovic is 6-0 in his career against Shapovalov, losing just two sets across all of those matches. Even if Shapo does get a set, Djokovic dominating the other three should guarantee a cash here.
Pick: Novak Djokovic -6.5 Games (-140)
Parlay
First Leg – 8:05 p.m. ET
Doug is 2-0 in MLB game picks for games he’s attended this year. Tonight, he’ll be at Wrigley Field for Phillies-Cubs. Just sayin’. Chicago is getting sharp money, so they make for a great run line play.
At Wimbledon, Matteo Berrettini will look to keep up his outstanding grass form against Hubert Hurkacz, who just defeated his idol Roger Federer. Prior to this run, Hurkacz had not won a match on grass this season, while Berrettini was victorious at Queen’s Club.
Pick: Cubs +1.5 and Matteo Berrettini Parlay (+113)*
Prop
Wimbledon – Djokovic vs. Shapovalov – Friday, 10:30 a.m. ET
Earlier we said it’s not impossible for Shapovalov to take a set — we just think Djokovic’s game spread should be good either way. However, there’s a discrepancy in the set spread pricing that we have to point out to you here. Djokovic -2.5 currently carries a vig of -130, but the prop for Denis Shopovalov not to win a set is priced at -120… even though they’re effectively the same bet. For this value, we’re going to find out just how implausible it is that he takes a set.
Pick: Denis Shapovalov to Win at Least One Set – No (-120)*
Bold Bet
NBA Finals – Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns – 9:10 p.m. ET
Apologies to Doug’s Wisconsin friends for the bad juju, but we just can’t fight the feeling that the Bucks might win this game. After all, they’ve been catching all the steam in the betting markets. There’s also the fact that, prior to this series, Milwaukee had won its last two games straight up as an away dog, while Phoenix straight up lost its last two games as a home favorite. It’s the Finals, crazier things have happened.
Pick: Bucks +160*