Posted on July 21, 2019, by Travis Pulver
A couple of NFL teams have reported to training camp already, and the Hall of Fame Game is now just a couple of weeks away. That means football is almost back. But since we have a few weeks before it is, we have time to do our research and figure out what bets can make us money this season and which ones are a waste of time (and money).
There are hundreds of ways in which fans can wager on the outcome of the season. Some will get more action than others, as they should. But there is one that everyone should consider getting in on. Will someone lose every single game this season?
The odds that Fanduel is offering are indicative of how unlikely such an occurrence is:
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• Will any team go 0-16 in the 2019-20 regular season?
o Yes +2800
o No -8000
It has only happened twice in NFL history, so it should come as no surprise that there is a 98.77 percent chance that it doesn’t happen. That makes it seem like betting on ‘No’ is easy money. But it would also require you to wager a small fortune to win anything worthwhile.
The 3.45 percent chance that it does happen doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. But the payout wouldn’t be bad, so is there any reason to think someone could fail to win even one game this season?
Actually—yes. Yes, there is.
Not including the ’08 Lions and ’17 Browns that failed to win one game, there have been ten teams that have gone 1-15; five have since 2000. Of those ten, six won by less than a field goal and another won by six in overtime. So, that is seven teams that were within a play of also going winless.
Factor in all the teams that have gone 2-14 or 3-13 and there are quite a few that were within a few plays of going winless. So, the possibility is actually a lot more prevalent than you might think.
But is there anyone that could be so bad next season they go winless?
Many of the teams that struggled last season (Jets, Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, and 49ers) are expected to be much better than they were last season. Expectations are low for the Cardinals– but with a Kliff Kingsbury offense run by Kyler Murray, they will win at least one.
The best candidates are probably the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins. New York struggled to generate offense and stop others from doing so. With Eli Manning still at quarterback and their best offensive weapon, Odell Beckham Jr., now calling Cleveland home, it is hard to see the offense being better this year.
However, their defense didn’t improve enough to make up the difference. So, could they struggle enough to lose every game? It is possible—but it may be more likely that the Dolphins do.
But the offense struggled to generate yards and score points last season and will likely do so again this year with a new head coach and new starting quarterback. If the good version of Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up, the offense might do well, but there is no telling if it will or for how long. With how he played last season, there isn’t much reason to feel more confident about Josh Rosen should he win the job.
While they didn’t lose too many guys from the defensive side of the ball, they needed to add some to help improve the No. 29 defense from last season—but they didn’t. Miami may have to catch someone having a bad week to get a win this season.
Will someone go winless? Probably not. But there is a distinct chance someone could. With those odds, it wouldn’t take much of a wager to earn a nice payday.