NFL Strong Value Bets Week 10

by | Nov 7, 2018 9 Football 9 NFL Strong Value Bets Week 10


After an ugly Week 8 where we were shutout, we quickly rebounded last week sweeping our way to victory with wins in all five selections. That gave us 12 points in one week for the first time this season as Kansas City, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh won, and the Patriots-Packers went under while the Saints-Rams went over. A good weekend for sure.

We don’t want to get cocky, so we look to five games this week that should be winners for you. That starts with a great Thursday night matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers and rolls through the weekend to Monday Night when the San Francisco 49ers take on the New York Giants.

  • Touchdown –Carolina Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: Over/Under –52.0

A ridiculous Thursday night game last week turns into a real winner this week as the Carolina Panthers take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a battle of two of the hottest teams in the NFL with Pittsburgh winning four straight while Carolina has won three in a row.

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The challenge in this game for Carolina is what they do best feeds well into what Pittsburgh does best. For example, Carolina is first in the NFL in yards per carry, but Pittsburgh is ninth in defense against the run in yards allowed per carry. The Panthers are second in rushing yards per game while the Steelers are sixth in rushing yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is fourth in passing yards per game while Carolina is 19th in passing yards allowed per game. This feeds well into what Pittsburgh should be able to do in this game and that should be a huge difference in this contest. This should be a high-scoring game, won by Pittsburgh by six.

How You Score: Take Pittsburgh and Give the points.

  • Field Goal – New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Total: Over/Under – 54.0

For the second straight week, we focus on the total for the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is averaging 34.9 points per game while Cincinnati is averaging 26.6 points per contest, giving a total of over 62 points per game between them. Combined, these two teams are averaging nearly 750 yards of offense per contest.

However, what really stands out in this game is that both defenses have been porous. Cincinnati is allowing nearly 450 yards of offense per game while New Orleans is allowing nearly 390 yards. New Orleans has been great against a run, but Cincinnati doesn’t run the ball, so the Bengals should have a fine day being able to throw the ball. This should be a high-scoring affair into the 60s for the total.

How You Score: Take the Over54.0

  • Extra Points – Three Games You Want to Take a Look At

Kansas City is favored by 16.5 over Arizona. It is true that the Chiefs are a far superior team, but consider that since 2008, only 21 teams have been favored by 16.5 points and only eight times have they actually covered that.

Arizona is averaging 13.8 points per game. They are 2-6 and are possibly the worst offensive football team in the league. However, Arizona is coming off of a bye week and should be better in this contest. The Chiefs will win, but 16.5 points is still too many.

How You Score – Take Arizona and the 16.5 points.

This is a dog of a game on Monday night as New York has not scored more than 20 points in any of their last three games. San Francisco has scored 27 points or more in five of their nine games this season, meaning the 49ers should easily be able to do their part in this game.

So, can New York come up with 18 points? The likelihood is yes. They are coming off of a bye week, are averaging 18.8 points per game, and are facing a 49ers defense that is allowing 26.6 points per contest.

How You Score –Go Over 44.0 in S.F.

Dallas is coming off a tough week where they gained just 72 yards on the ground while getting crushed at home by Tennessee, 28-14. It likely isn’t going to get any better this week as the Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the game, allowing 83.8 yards per contest. Even with the addition of Amari Cooper the Cowboys offense is just inconsistent right now.

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road as the underdog and is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against NFC teams. Philadelphia added Golden Tate and brings back Darren Sproles, so this could get ugly early.

How You Score – Take Philadelphia and give the 7.0 points.


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