NFL Strong Value Bets Week 4

by | Sep 27, 2018 9 Football 9 NFL Strong Value Bets Week 4


After looking really good in Week 2, we took it on the chin last weekend, missing on both of our big games and only getting one of our extra points right. That gave us just one point out of a possible 12. That is pretty ugly!

We look to rebound this week, as there are some golden opportunities to redeem ourselves. That includes what should be a great contest between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons. So, let’s dig into it.

  • Touchdown – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Atlanta – 5
Total: Over/Under – 51.0

It wasn’t very long ago that Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was the toast of the NFL. It is true that he has a solid completion percentage, 66%, has thrown for 897 yards in three games and has seven touchdowns, but this is not the same Ryan we saw three seasons ago. The Falcons quarterback has been sacked seven times and has no running game to speak out as Tevin Coleman as 159 yards on 40 attempts the season. Ryan, himself, leads the team in touchdowns on the ground with two and he has only 10 carries the season. Atlanta is ninth in points scored (26.7), but her 25th in points allowed (28.3).

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Meanwhile, Andy Dalton looks to be regaining his form. He threw four touchdowns in the first half against Baltimore two weeks ago, becoming the first quarterback to do that since Ryan himself, who did that in 2016 on his way to an MVP season. Cincinnati has been the more impressive team, defeating the Colts on the road to begin the season for defeating Baltimore in Week 2. They lost last week, but no shame in losing to the Panthers in Carolina.

Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and they are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. In a battle of two quarterbacks looking to regain their status as a top-tier signal-caller, Dalton pulls this one off.

How You Score: Take the Bengals and the Points – Cincinnati +5 (-110)

  • Field Goal – Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders

Spread: Oakland -3
Total: Over/Under – 44.0

There were high hopes for the Oakland defense starting the season and tell Khalil Mack was traded to Chicago. That turned what looked like a solid pass rush into one that simply can’t attack the quarterback at all, and the Raiders have struggled since.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is beginning to catch fire and actually believe in themselves. In a game of two teams that have a great deal of talent the one deciding factor to this contest is going to be that the Cleveland Browns believe they are an up and comer while the Raiders are starting to believe their season may be over already. Cleveland is playing good defense, allowing 19.7 points per game while the Raiders are allowing 27.0.

How You Score: Take the Browns and the Points – Cleveland +3 (-120)

  • Extra Points – Three Games You Want to Take a Look At

Green Bay did not get any help from the officiating last weekend and suffered a loss at Washington. Now they return home to face a Buffalo Bills team that shocked the Minnesota Vikings last weekend. The Packers are not going to be surprised this week and you can be sure they’re going to be a little irritated after last week’s loss.

Green Bay is favored by 10 and the home team is 5-0 against the spread in the last five games in the series. The favorite has also gone 4-1 in the last five meetings against the spread.

How You Score – Give the Points and Take Green Bay

Did you ever think you would be talking about the first-place Chicago Bears taking on the first-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Chicago is favored by three in this game and this is an interesting matchup of the team that scores it well but can play defense, Tampa Bay, and a team that plays solid defense that struggles to score.

Both teams are 2-1 against the spread the season and the big story of this contest is going to be the quarterback play. Tampa Bay has a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick while Chicago is still going with second-year starter Mark Trubinsky. The Bears are favored by three and that’s just not a good choice.

How You Score – Take Tampa Bay and the Points.

The Monday night showcase should be a great game between two heated division rivals as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos. The over/under in this game is 56 which seems like a big number, but consider that the Chiefs have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL and have the worst scoring defense. Denver is only averaging 20.3 point game, but they’re going to get an opportunity to score in this one.

This contest easily has the makings of a 33-30 final, so we go over.

How You Score – Go with the Over


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