NFL Strong Value Bets Week 7

by | Oct 17, 2018 9 Football 9 NFL Strong Value Bets Week 7


It was a fair week for us in our NFL scoring plays for Week 6. In the big plays, we called it right about the score going over between the Buccaneers and the Falcons and the Packers not being able to cover the spread against the 49ers. That gave us nine points, but we missed all our extra points. That gives us a total of nine out of 12. Not bad, but could and should be better.

This week we focus on what should be some great games, starting with the Denver Broncos at the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots taking on the Chicago Bears. This is just the start of what should be a lucrative weekend.

  • Touchdown – Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets

Spread: Minnesota (-3.0)
Total: Over/Under – 46.5

A lot of key statistics would make one believe that New York has a good shot of this game. They are averaging 27.5 points per game behind the rookie quarterback while only giving up 23.2. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging only 23.3 points per game while giving up 24.7.

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However, the one statistic that should stand out most is 95. That is the number of yards Minnesota is giving up on the ground each week which is not welcome news for the rookie quarterback. The Vikings dare you to throw and don’t really make the running game much of an option. That gives the Vikings a big advantage in this contest.

Right now, New York is just overachieving and they are coming up against a Minnesota offense that is finally coming into their own. The Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five October games and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road. Come on Minnesota to win and win big

How You Score: Take Minnesota and Give the Points (-125)


  • Field Goal – Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -6.0
Total: Over/Under –58.0

This is a game that pits to the most explosive offenses in the NFL against one another. Kansas City is averaging 35.8 points per contest while Cincinnati is scoring 29.0. Even more importantly, both of the defenses for these two teams have been terrible, combining to give up nearly 480 yards of total offense per game.

This contest has high-scoring written all over it is both Andy Dalton and Patrick Mahomes have been spectacular, combining for over 3,600 yards passing and 32 touchdowns through the first six weeks of the season. Cincinnati has gone over in each of their last four road games and has gone over in five of their last seven overall.

How You Score: Take the Over 58.0 (-110)


  • Extra Points – Three Games You Want to Take a Look At

Both Denver and Arizona have been disappointing so far this season, and fans seem to be turning on quarterback Case Keenum. However, the coaching staff still has confidence in their QB, but that will not likely be enough here. Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy had the same job for Denver last season, and there is no doubt he’ll want to make a statement in this game.

How You Score – Go with the Cardinals (+1, -105)

Two teams who have playoff aspirations but who have not really found their groove this season will take to the field when the Carolina Panthers take on the Philadelphia Eagles. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NFC, but there is also a lot of talent on the other side of the ball as well. We think that translates into a much higher scoring game than what oddsmakers seem to believe. These two teams have gone over in five of the last six meetings between, thus, go with over 45.5.

How You Score – Over 45.5 (-110)

The battle between the Saints and the Ravens looks like offense versus defense, but Baltimore has put up points this season as well. It is not likely that New Orleans is going to achieve their average of 36 in this game, but Baltimore has a much better chance of going over their 25.5 average. The Saints are allowing 28 points per game.

The Ravens have gone over in nine of their last 13 games against a team with a winning record while New Orleans has gone over in 13 of their last 16 games following a bye week. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall.

How You Score – Go Over 50.0 (-100)


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